This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 October 2019

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 19, 2019

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 October 2019

U.S - Cracks in the Foundation?

  • Personal consumption is still on track for a solid Q3, but retail sales declined in September for the first time in seven months.
  • Manufacturing data were certainly influenced by the GM strike, but output has now fallen in six months this year, and survey evidence has yet to point to a meaningful pickup.
  • Single-family housing starts rose for the fourth consecutive month. Housing should positively contribute to GDP growth in Q3 for the first time in almost two years.
  • The lack of a pushback on market expectations from the Fed speakers gives us increasing confidence that the FOMC will cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps at its October 29-30 meeting.

 

Global -  A Breakthrough on Brexit, or Another False Start?

  • UK PM Boris Johnson and EU leaders announced they had struck a Brexit deal, an encouraging development ahead of the October 31 deadline by which the UK must either leave the EU or once again request an extension.
  • The path forward is precarious, however, as the UK Parliament is set to vote on the deal in an emergency session on Saturday. The prospects for the deal's passage remain far from assured.
  • Chinese Q3 GDP growth slowed further to 6.0% year-over-year, although September retail and industrial activity suggest the quarter ended on a firmer note. However, given a measured policy response, the overall growth slowdown should continue.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 November 2022

The resiliency of the U.S. consumer was also on display, as total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.3% in October, boosted, in part, by a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles & parts and a 4.1% rise at gasoline stations.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

February\'s employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed\'s shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 January 2021

Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020

U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 January 2020

Fears of an escalating coronavirus outbreak reached the United States this week, as a Washington state man became the first confirmed domestic case and the international total reached more than 800.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 June 2020

Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 May 2020

The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 October 2020

Data continue to reflect an economy digging itself out of the lockdown-induced slump.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 February 2020

The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 May 2023

In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.


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