This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 June 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jun 20, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 June 2022

Two such innings in the same game is not believed to have ever been accomplished in the modern history of major league baseball.  After last week's stronger-than-expected CPI, less surprising was the 75 point rate increase put forth by the Fed.  Meanwhile, markets went into a churn on the increased risk of recession that rate increase introduces. The Bank’s economists now look for the U.S. economy to experience a mild contraction in mid-2023 as economic data released this week add to evidence that the chances of a soft landing are fading.  The economic ground beneath us continues to shift.




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Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.

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7 Interest Rate Watch for more detail. In other news, retail sales data disappointed as higher prices factor into spending and industrial activity continued to recover but remains beset by supply issues.

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Highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report surprised to the upside. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in September, and core CPI increased 0.6%.

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U.S. GDP declined at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, only a hint of what is to come in the second quarter.

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Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.

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Existing home sales declined 0.7% in January, while new home sales leaped 7.2%. Real personal spending shot higher in January, and solid growth in discretionary spending suggests continued consumer resilience.

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The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.

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The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

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Stronger-than-expected inflation, underpinned by the mildly hawkish minutes from the January FOMC meeting, drove a move higher in mortgage rates.

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Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.


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