This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 June 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jun 20, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 June 2022

Two such innings in the same game is not believed to have ever been accomplished in the modern history of major league baseball.  After last week's stronger-than-expected CPI, less surprising was the 75 point rate increase put forth by the Fed.  Meanwhile, markets went into a churn on the increased risk of recession that rate increase introduces. The Bank’s economists now look for the U.S. economy to experience a mild contraction in mid-2023 as economic data released this week add to evidence that the chances of a soft landing are fading.  The economic ground beneath us continues to shift.




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U.S. data released this week indicates the economic expansion remains alive even as inflation continues to slow. The year-ago rates of headline and core PCE inflation were the lowest since March 2021 and April 2021, respectively.

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The Federal Reserve can afford patience thanks to a resilient labor market. During April, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 net jobs, continuing a string of solid monthly payroll additions.

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The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.

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Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.

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The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).

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The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.

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The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.

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July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...

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Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.

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Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.


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