This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 17, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021

U.S. Review - More Evidence of Economic Recovery

Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived. An influx of cash from the latest round of stimulus and warmer weather after harsh arctic temperatures across the country in February led to a blockbuster month for retailers in March. Total retail sales surged 9.8% during the month, a gain exceeded only by the surge tied to the reopening of the economy in May of last year after the lockdowns. The gain pushed the total level of sales a stunning 17% higher than it was before the pandemic. Without exception, every store type posted better sales in March, and the level of sales reported at every type of retailer except food services (restaurants) is now between 2% and a staggering 44% ahead of where they were prior to the pandemic.




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As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.

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Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.

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it was a big week for economic news as the Astros allowed the TWINS of all teams to sign Carlos Correa to the type of short-term deal that the Astros have historically been open to.

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The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 August 2021

The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 June 2022

CPI increases continue to sizzle like this weekend’s temperature, putting consumers in a worse mood than Texas Rangers fans (with their 9.5 games back $500 million middle infield).

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The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.

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The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 December 2023

U.S. data released this week indicates the economic expansion remains alive even as inflation continues to slow. The year-ago rates of headline and core PCE inflation were the lowest since March 2021 and April 2021, respectively.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 September 2023

On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.


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