This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 17, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021

U.S. Review - More Evidence of Economic Recovery

Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived. An influx of cash from the latest round of stimulus and warmer weather after harsh arctic temperatures across the country in February led to a blockbuster month for retailers in March. Total retail sales surged 9.8% during the month, a gain exceeded only by the surge tied to the reopening of the economy in May of last year after the lockdowns. The gain pushed the total level of sales a stunning 17% higher than it was before the pandemic. Without exception, every store type posted better sales in March, and the level of sales reported at every type of retailer except food services (restaurants) is now between 2% and a staggering 44% ahead of where they were prior to the pandemic.




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Nonfarm payrolls expanded 303K in March, surpassing all estimates submitted to Bloomberg. The continued strength in hiring suggests less urgency for policymakers at the Federal Reserve to lower the target range of the fed funds rate.

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The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.

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Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.

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Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?

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Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.

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Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.

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The March consumer price data dominated the economic discussion this week and are the latest to support that the timing and degree of Fed easing will be later and smaller than many of us previously expected.

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During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.

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The first economic data released this week in the United States reinforced the theme that labor supply and demand are struggling to come into balance.


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