28 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Feb 08, 2021

28 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report

In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years. In short, we look for a modest increase in rates of consumer price inflation later this year. Not only do year-over-year comparisons become favorable for higher rates of inflation starting in the spring, but prices of many services could be boosted later this year, at least temporarily, by robust consumer spending when the economy fully reopens.




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This week\'s economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index\'s 24-year history.

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Retail and Industrial activity were stronger than the headline data suggest, there are also some signs of weakening.

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The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.

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The global mobility playing field is equalizing. Major European countries such as Germany and France have seen a slowdown in recent weeks, leaving them right in line with the United States relative to the January baseline.

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Personal consumption is still on track for a solid Q3, but retail sales declined in September for the first time in seven months.

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Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.

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The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.

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U.S. data released this week indicates the economic expansion remains alive even as inflation continues to slow. The year-ago rates of headline and core PCE inflation were the lowest since March 2021 and April 2021, respectively.

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The Wells Fargo Economics team notes in the Commentary that new COVID cases in New Zealand disrupted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand\'s plan to tighten monetary policy this week.

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Highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report surprised to the upside. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in September, and core CPI increased 0.6%.


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