U.S. Review: Raising the Bar Even Further
- This week's lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week's blowout retail sales report. We have revised our forecast for Q1 growth up to a 5.5% pace from 4.8% previously, and growth for the year is now pegged at 6.5%, up from 6.4%.
- Sales of existing homes fell 3.7% in March, but realtors are selling homes faster than ever and often well above the asking price. Inventories of homes remain near a record low, and the median price of an existing home surged 17.2% over the past year.
- Initial unemployment claims fell more than expected during the latest week, dropping to 547,000 claims—the lowest level since the pandemic began. The four-week moving average for the April survey week was 651,000, down from 751,750 from the March survey week, setting the stage for another strong employment report.
- New home sales surged 20.7% in March, and sales for February were revised signicantly higher. Builders report exceptionally strong demand and are selling homes faster than they can build them.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 December 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 15, 2022
Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2023
The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 January 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2022
As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.
2021 Annual Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 16, 2020
The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26 April 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 29, 2024
We got our first look at Q1 GDP, which downshifted to a 1.6% annualized pace and was accompanied by a hot core PCE deflator reading.
Economic Uncertainty Seems Removed Going Into The New Year 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 28, 2019
The U.S. economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in Q3/19.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 November 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 08, 2023
Although payroll growth is easing, the labor market remains relatively tight. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in October, slightly higher than the cycle low of 3.4% first hit in January 2023, but still low compared to historical averages.
Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
The Regional Breakdown Of A Labor Market In Meltdown
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 26, 2020
Employment fell in all 50 states and 43 states saw their unemployment rate rise to a record in April. The damage is already hard to fathom-a 28% unemployment rate in Nevada and still another month of job losses ahead.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2020
In the immediate fallout after the lockdowns in the early stages of this pandemic, there was a lot of discussion about the shape of the recovery.
