U.S. Review U.S. Recovery Is Well on Its Way
Data released this week showed the U.S. economy expanded at a rapid 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone's throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart). We project the level of output to eclipse its pre-COVID position in the second quarter and for the remaining output gap to close by the end of the year. Most major areas of the economy expanded in the first quarter, but a considerable boost came from stimulus-fueled consumers.
U.S. households are flush with cash. Many households received their third, considerably larger stimulus check in March, which caused personal income to surge a record 21.1% during the month. In fact, many households received two stimulus checks during the first quarter, and even with the double-digit annualized gain in real personal consumption expenditures (+10.7%), the large influx of stimulus boosted the personal saving rate to 21% from 13% in the fourth quarter. In total, we estimate consumers are sitting on $2.2 trillion in “excess savings” through March, which is a considerable amount of dry powder at their disposal to fuel what is shaping up to be a consumer-led recovery.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2020
The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 03, 2019
How will Fed rates-cut and Trump 10% tariff on $300 Billion Chinese Goods countered by Chinese currency devaluation against Dollar, affect inflation and economic slowdown in US economy?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2023
Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2019
A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 24, 2020
A recent strong report from the National Association of Homebuilders set the tone for another round of strong housing data. The NAHB index rose two points to a record high 85.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 23, 2023
Economic data continue to suggest the U.S. economy is only gradually losing momentum. Consumers continue to spend, and industrial and housing activity are seeing some stabilization.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2020
Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2021
This week\'s lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week\'s blowout retail sales report.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2022
Unlike Yordan Alvarez, no one is expecting the Fed to stand back and admire their handiwork after this weeks 50 basis point increase in the Fed Discount Rate. Similar to Yordan, their effort is more of a single and not a home run.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2023
Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.