U.S. Review U.S. Recovery Is Well on Its Way
Data released this week showed the U.S. economy expanded at a rapid 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone's throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart). We project the level of output to eclipse its pre-COVID position in the second quarter and for the remaining output gap to close by the end of the year. Most major areas of the economy expanded in the first quarter, but a considerable boost came from stimulus-fueled consumers.
U.S. households are flush with cash. Many households received their third, considerably larger stimulus check in March, which caused personal income to surge a record 21.1% during the month. In fact, many households received two stimulus checks during the first quarter, and even with the double-digit annualized gain in real personal consumption expenditures (+10.7%), the large influx of stimulus boosted the personal saving rate to 21% from 13% in the fourth quarter. In total, we estimate consumers are sitting on $2.2 trillion in “excess savings” through March, which is a considerable amount of dry powder at their disposal to fuel what is shaping up to be a consumer-led recovery.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 08, 2021
Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 13, 2021
Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 23, 2021
While we were picking up tree limbs from the yard, data released this week generally showed a stronger economy in August than many expected in the wake of surging COVID cases.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 22, 2020
European activity is surging. Germany and Italy are leading the way, but France is close behind despite an ongoing rise in cases. The Google data are a bit outdated, but are hard to reconcile with today’s weak Eurozone services PMI figures.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 09, 2020
Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 27, 2020
Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 June 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2022
While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2020
The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2021
While fears of an Evergrande default in China were rattling financial markets, for those of us in Southeast Texas who have survived the typically very hot months of July, August and September, this week brought the very welcome first early fall-like
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 22, 2020
Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.
