This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 May 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/May 25, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 May 2021

U.S. Review Housing Begins to Bump Up Against Supply Constraints

Over the past year, the housing market has become white-hot. Low mortgage rates and increased household space needs have propelled home sales, builder confidence and residential construction to highs not seen since the housing boom in the early 2000s. Like many other parts of the economy, however, robust housing market activity appears to be bumping up against some supply constraints.

Housing starts fell 9.5% to a still-strong 1.57-million unit pace in April. Unusually wet weather in the South and Midwest may have contributed to the decline, but the larger-than-expected drop looks to be primarily owed to shortages of building materials and qualified labor. Shortages of lumber, copper and appliances have caused the prices of those building materials to skyrocket, and builders appear to be delaying project starts as a result. Single-family starts fell 13.4% during the month, while multifamily starts edged up 0.8%. Apartment projects appear to be moving forward again alongside rebounding leasing activity, both in the suburbs and hard-hit urban markets.




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During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.

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Sometimes, the impact of higher rates is quite obvious, such as the series of bank failures that occurred earlier this year.

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Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.

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U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.

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In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.

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The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

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As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.

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The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.


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