This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 October 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 October 2021

Economic data this week indicated that the ongoing expansion still has some momentum despite some familiar headwinds, though this week's releases were largely overshadowed by a busy week on Capitol Hill, where the week was closed-out with Congress passing a continuing resolution to keep the Government funded through December 3rd.  Consumer spending growth was better than expected in August, but it is still struggling to keep pace with inflation. Capital spending also picked up, though producers are having a hard time keeping up and the ISM survey suggests supply chain issues are only getting worse.  Two items I recommend in this week’s Commentary are the “Interest Rate Watch” on p. 9 and the “The iBuyer Phenomenon” on p. 10.  Very interesting reading worth checking out.




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On Wednesday, the May CPI data showed that consumer prices were unchanged in the month, the first flat reading for the CPI since July 2022.

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Just as I know the folks in Florida are resilient and will recover in time, incoming data indicate a slowing yet resilient economy.

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Okay, so I’ve gotten about half a dozen calls since Wednesday asking if I saw the May CPI numbers that came out this week.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 January 2023

Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1.

Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.

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In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.

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Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.

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Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.

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Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.

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Back to the economy, issues with supply constraints remains a broken-record reference, but data this week highlighted the economy\'s resilience in spite of those continuing problems.


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