This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 August 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 16, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 August 2021

Olympic trivia for the day…Eddie Alvarez is about to become just the third American, and sixth Olympic athlete overall, to win medals in both the Summer and Winter Olympics.  Alvarez won a silver medal as a member of the 5,000-meter ice skating relay team at the 2014 Sochi Olympics.  He then transitioned to baseball, which he noted has absolutely nothing in common with speed skating other than requiring a series of left turns.  He is now a shortstop in the Miami Marlins system with their AAA minor league affiliate in Jacksonville, FL.  With yesterday’s 7 – 2 victory over South Korea, the USA Baseball team is assured of nothing worse than a silver medal depending upon the outcome of tomorrow’s gold medal game against Japan.  That has nothing to do with the economy, but I thought it was neat.

 

Back to the economy, issues with supply constraints remains a broken-record reference, but data this week highlighted the economy's resilience in spite of those continuing problems.  Meanwhile financial markets weighed the impact of the Delta variant wave on the outlook for the economy and Fed policy. ISM surveys for the manufacturing and service sectors continued to show businesses' ability to operate in this supply-strained world, with the latter hitting a new record high. Finally, this morning's virtually blemish-free employment report marked a big step down the road of "substantial further progress."




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This week\'s economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index\'s 24-year history.

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The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.

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Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.

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The U.S. election has come and gone, but we have not made any meaningful changes to our economic outlook, which continues to look for further expansion in the U.S. economy in coming quarters.

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April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.

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Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.

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The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.

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Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.


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