This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 August 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 16, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 August 2021

Olympic trivia for the day…Eddie Alvarez is about to become just the third American, and sixth Olympic athlete overall, to win medals in both the Summer and Winter Olympics.  Alvarez won a silver medal as a member of the 5,000-meter ice skating relay team at the 2014 Sochi Olympics.  He then transitioned to baseball, which he noted has absolutely nothing in common with speed skating other than requiring a series of left turns.  He is now a shortstop in the Miami Marlins system with their AAA minor league affiliate in Jacksonville, FL.  With yesterday’s 7 – 2 victory over South Korea, the USA Baseball team is assured of nothing worse than a silver medal depending upon the outcome of tomorrow’s gold medal game against Japan.  That has nothing to do with the economy, but I thought it was neat.

 

Back to the economy, issues with supply constraints remains a broken-record reference, but data this week highlighted the economy's resilience in spite of those continuing problems.  Meanwhile financial markets weighed the impact of the Delta variant wave on the outlook for the economy and Fed policy. ISM surveys for the manufacturing and service sectors continued to show businesses' ability to operate in this supply-strained world, with the latter hitting a new record high. Finally, this morning's virtually blemish-free employment report marked a big step down the road of "substantial further progress."




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Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.

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The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.

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The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.


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