U.S. - Was April the Bottom?
- Data this week continued to suggest the U.S. economy hit rock bottom in April. Still, it is a long road to recovery and the pickup in economic activity will be gradual.
- In what was a surprising jobs report, the U.S. labor market added 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%. The bottom line: hiring started to pick-up earlier than expected as states began to loosen restrictions in May.
- Survey evidence from the ISM further supports the notion that economic activity has bottomed, as does mobility data, though they exemplify just how gradual the rebound may be.
Global - Trio of Central Bank Meetings Dominate the Week
- There was a trio of key central bank meetings this week, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicking the week off. As expected, the RBA maintained its main policy rate and target for the three-year sovereign bond yield.
- The European Central Bank increased the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program by €600 billion, extended the timeline for purchases to June 2021 and announced maturing holdings would be reinvested until at least the end of 2022.
- The Bank of Canada left its main policy rate unchanged and modestly scaled back some provisions aimed at providing liquidity in financial markets.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2022
July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2020
U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2023
The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 09, 2021
Economic data came in largely as expected this week and suggest continued economic recovery.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 07, 2019
The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 11, 2023
In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 14, 2023
An unexpected spike in jobless claims is a sign that cracks are forming in the labor market. Higher mortgage rates look to be hindering a housing market rebound.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 27, 2022
July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2022
As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 19, 2021
The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.