This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 May 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/May 29, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 May 2022

it looks like higher mortgage rates are starting to have some effect on the housing market as April brought a steep 16.6% decline in new home sales and a 3.9% drop in pending home sales.  On the other side of the ledger, inflation persists as evidenced by personal income rising 0.4% during April, while personal income increased 0.9%. The headline PCE deflator was up 6.3% year-to-year, while the core measure rose 4.9%.




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Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.

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Looking at Q4 GDP, Australia\'s economy grew by less than expected, GDP was flat for the quarter in both Canada and Switzerland, and Sweden\'s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.

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Personal consumption is still on track for a solid Q3, but retail sales declined in September for the first time in seven months.

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Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.

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The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.

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Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.

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Existing home sales declined 0.7% in January, while new home sales leaped 7.2%. Real personal spending shot higher in January, and solid growth in discretionary spending suggests continued consumer resilience.

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Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March.

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As with the Mets and Yankees when they ran into the Astros over the last couple days, consumers staying power is showing signs of running out as inflation persists and confidence moves sharply lower.


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