This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 May 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/May 29, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 May 2022

it looks like higher mortgage rates are starting to have some effect on the housing market as April brought a steep 16.6% decline in new home sales and a 3.9% drop in pending home sales.  On the other side of the ledger, inflation persists as evidenced by personal income rising 0.4% during April, while personal income increased 0.9%. The headline PCE deflator was up 6.3% year-to-year, while the core measure rose 4.9%.




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Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.

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Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1.

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Revisions to PCE were broad based across the goods and services components and make it less clear that the restrictive interest rate environment is poising a major impediment to household spending.

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In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.

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Employers continued to add jobs at a steady clip in October, demonstrating the labor market remains tight and the FOMC will continue to tighten policy.

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Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.

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The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.

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During February, existing home sales and housing starts both topped expectations and rose at robust rates. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have remained subdued so far in March.

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The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.


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