This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2021

U.S. Review - Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last

This week's economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index's 24-year history. The blowout report is just the latest data suggesting the full reopening boom is upon us. All 18 industries reported an increase in March, and the index on current business activity climbed to an all-time high.

 

Initial Claims' Noise Should Not Take Away from Strong Labor Market Signals

Filings for initial jobless claims increased for a second consecutive week, resulting in a modest increase in the four-week average. The recent increases in initial claims contrast with virtually every other labor market indicator, including the March nonfarm payroll report as well as surveys of businesses and consumers.




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Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.

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The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.

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Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.

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We added 850,00 jobs in June, but much of that was State governments school districts in some parts of the Country reopening just in time for summer break.

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Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.

This Week's State Of The Economy-What Is Ahead?

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Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.

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July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.

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U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.

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The Producer Price Index (PPI) was a bit firm in April, rising 0.5% amid higher services prices, though it did come with slight downward revisions to prior month\'s data.


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