This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2021

U.S. Review - Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last

This week's economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index's 24-year history. The blowout report is just the latest data suggesting the full reopening boom is upon us. All 18 industries reported an increase in March, and the index on current business activity climbed to an all-time high.

 

Initial Claims' Noise Should Not Take Away from Strong Labor Market Signals

Filings for initial jobless claims increased for a second consecutive week, resulting in a modest increase in the four-week average. The recent increases in initial claims contrast with virtually every other labor market indicator, including the March nonfarm payroll report as well as surveys of businesses and consumers.




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A recent strong report from the National Association of Homebuilders set the tone for another round of strong housing data. The NAHB index rose two points to a record high 85.

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In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.

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The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-expected pace in Q3, with real GDP increasing at a robust 4.9% annualized rate.

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Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.

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This week\'s light calendar of economic reports showed supply chain disruptions tugging a little at economic growth.

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Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.

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The U.S. election has come and gone, but we have not made any meaningful changes to our economic outlook, which continues to look for further expansion in the U.S. economy in coming quarters.

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European activity is surging. Germany and Italy are leading the way, but France is close behind despite an ongoing rise in cases. The Google data are a bit outdated, but are hard to reconcile with today’s weak Eurozone services PMI figures.

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The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

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In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.


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