This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2021

U.S. Review - Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last

This week's economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index's 24-year history. The blowout report is just the latest data suggesting the full reopening boom is upon us. All 18 industries reported an increase in March, and the index on current business activity climbed to an all-time high.

 

Initial Claims' Noise Should Not Take Away from Strong Labor Market Signals

Filings for initial jobless claims increased for a second consecutive week, resulting in a modest increase in the four-week average. The recent increases in initial claims contrast with virtually every other labor market indicator, including the March nonfarm payroll report as well as surveys of businesses and consumers.




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Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.

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Data this week continued to suggest the U.S. economy hit rock bottom in April. Still, it is a long road to recovery and the pickup in economic activity will be gradual.

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On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.

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Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus.

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The Texans have earned a top draft position yet again, the Cowboys are home again for the remainder of the playoffs, and inflation concerns that continue to mount, along with ongoing supply chain disruptions, are weighing on homebuilder confidence.

How Long Can US Businesses Remain Shut Down?

The sudden stop in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic means that many businesses will need to rely on their cash reserves to survive the next few months.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that nonfarm payrolls increased 528,000 for the month of July, easily topping estimates, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.5%.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2020

The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.

June 2020 Economy At A Glance

The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.

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Employers added jobs for the fourth consecutive month in August, bringing the total number of jobs recovered from the virus-related low to 10.5 million.


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