This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Mar 08, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

February's employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Fed's shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy. Higher prices will reduce consumers' buying power, not the least of which is the distinct possibility that gas prices top $4/gal. for the first time since July 2008.  Good news is that household and corporate balance sheets remain exceptionally strong. Moreover, supply will be striving to catch up with demand over the next year or so, which should support continued output and employment growth as firms rebuild inventories and bolster hiring.




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Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.

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The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.

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U.S. Economy expands but at a weak rate. Regional bank failures cause corporate investment spreads to widen again. House Republicans pass bills that affect the debt ceiling.

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In other economic news, output continues to ramp up across the U.S., even as the resurgence in COVID cases is leading to some pullback in consumer engagement.

2021 Annual Economic Outlook

The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.

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Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.

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Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.

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