This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Mar 08, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

February's employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Fed's shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy. Higher prices will reduce consumers' buying power, not the least of which is the distinct possibility that gas prices top $4/gal. for the first time since July 2008.  Good news is that household and corporate balance sheets remain exceptionally strong. Moreover, supply will be striving to catch up with demand over the next year or so, which should support continued output and employment growth as firms rebuild inventories and bolster hiring.




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In March retail sales fell 1.0%, manufacturing production slipped 0.5% and the consumer price index rose a modest 0.1%.

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Looking at Q4 GDP, Australia\'s economy grew by less than expected, GDP was flat for the quarter in both Canada and Switzerland, and Sweden\'s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.

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During February, existing home sales and housing starts both topped expectations and rose at robust rates. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have remained subdued so far in March.

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Economic data continue to suggest the U.S. economy is only gradually losing momentum. Consumers continue to spend, and industrial and housing activity are seeing some stabilization.

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Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.

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Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.

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Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.

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Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.

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Nonfarm payrolls expanded 303K in March, surpassing all estimates submitted to Bloomberg. The continued strength in hiring suggests less urgency for policymakers at the Federal Reserve to lower the target range of the fed funds rate.

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More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.


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