This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 July 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jul 04, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 July 2020

U.S. - Waves of Data Headed into Independence Day Weekend

  • Total payrolls rose by 4.8 million and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. Another step in the right direction, but employment remains nearly 10% below the February peak.
  • Initial jobless claims slightly fell to 1.4 million for the week ending June 27. Continuing claims came in at 19.3 million for the week ending June 20. Processing issues may be overstating the numbers, but claims remain highly elevated nevertheless.
  • The ISM manufacturing index blew past expectations during June, rising to a 14-month high of 52.6. The surge likely reflects relief about reopening rather than a full rebound in activity.

 

Global - Q2 Set to Be a Tough Quarter for Most Global Economies

  • It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.
  • China’s PMIs beat market expectations in June as the manufacturing and services PMIs as well as the Caixin manufacturing PMI strengthened and remained above the breakeven 50 level.
  • Data out of Canada were less encouraging, however. Economic activity fell sharply in April as strict COVID-19 lockdown measures weighed on growth.
  • Finally, the Riksbank caught market participants off guard by delivering a SEK200B increase in its QE program.



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Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.

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This week marked the first U.S. COVID vaccinations and the imminent rollout of a second vaccine.

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In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.

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