This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 April 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 05, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 April 2022

Interesting factoid I’ve seen noted several places recently is that the Millennial generation (1981 – 1996) surpassed the Baby Boom as the largest generation in U.S. history.  That is relevant because after a delay caused by factors such as student debt, and possibly some other factors as well, more Millennials will reach the age of 32, the median age for first-time home buyers, over the next two years than ever before.  That seems like a strong indicator for continued strong home sales for the next two years at least, unless of course interest rates escalate to a level that forces them to remain renters.

 

The key factor that will drive interest rates is the Fed’s belated effort to rein-in inflation.  The Fed's difficult job got harder this week. Its preferred inflation gauge set another fresh 40-year record high while the ISM prices paid measure shot up 11.5 points to 87.1. Payrolls increased 431K in March with steep upward revisions that lifted last month's gain, but personal income is not quite keeping pace with price gains. Small wonder, the yield curve temporarily inverted, a sign the bond market is losing faith in a soft landing.




This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 March 2023

Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.

Economic Uncertainty Seems Removed Going Into The New Year 2020

The U.S. economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in Q3/19.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2020

Although the recovery from the COVID recession is still far from over, the U.S. economy is bouncing back faster than many expected.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020

Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 April 2022

I’ll wish you a Happy Earth Day anyway. Don’t expect a card this year. While the Earth continues to thankfully revolve at a steady rate, rising mortgage rates appear to be slowing residential activity

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 October 2022

Highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report surprised to the upside. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in September, and core CPI increased 0.6%.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26 April 2024

We got our first look at Q1 GDP, which downshifted to a 1.6% annualized pace and was accompanied by a hot core PCE deflator reading.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 April 2020

Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 March 2020

An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 November 2019

A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party.


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