Interesting factoid I’ve seen noted several places recently is that the Millennial generation (1981 – 1996) surpassed the Baby Boom as the largest generation in U.S. history. That is relevant because after a delay caused by factors such as student debt, and possibly some other factors as well, more Millennials will reach the age of 32, the median age for first-time home buyers, over the next two years than ever before. That seems like a strong indicator for continued strong home sales for the next two years at least, unless of course interest rates escalate to a level that forces them to remain renters.
The key factor that will drive interest rates is the Fed’s belated effort to rein-in inflation. The Fed's difficult job got harder this week. Its preferred inflation gauge set another fresh 40-year record high while the ISM prices paid measure shot up 11.5 points to 87.1. Payrolls increased 431K in March with steep upward revisions that lifted last month's gain, but personal income is not quite keeping pace with price gains. Small wonder, the yield curve temporarily inverted, a sign the bond market is losing faith in a soft landing.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 09, 2019
Optimism soared this week on hopes of a forthcoming trade deal, as equity markets hit all-time highs and the yield curve steepened.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 January 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 20, 2023
The housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed\'s efforts to slow the economy, and this week\'s data showed the industry continues to reel.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 14, 2020
Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 27, 2022
The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 October 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 22, 2021
The first economic data released this week in the United States reinforced the theme that labor supply and demand are struggling to come into balance.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 26, 2020
After a revised look at GDP this week suggested the second quarter may not have been quite as bad as first estimated, attention shifts to the current quarter.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 June 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 26, 2021
Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.
Economic Uncertainty Seems Removed Going Into The New Year 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 28, 2019
The U.S. economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in Q3/19.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 27, 2020
Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 18, 2020
Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.
