This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 April 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 05, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 April 2022

Interesting factoid I’ve seen noted several places recently is that the Millennial generation (1981 – 1996) surpassed the Baby Boom as the largest generation in U.S. history.  That is relevant because after a delay caused by factors such as student debt, and possibly some other factors as well, more Millennials will reach the age of 32, the median age for first-time home buyers, over the next two years than ever before.  That seems like a strong indicator for continued strong home sales for the next two years at least, unless of course interest rates escalate to a level that forces them to remain renters.

 

The key factor that will drive interest rates is the Fed’s belated effort to rein-in inflation.  The Fed's difficult job got harder this week. Its preferred inflation gauge set another fresh 40-year record high while the ISM prices paid measure shot up 11.5 points to 87.1. Payrolls increased 431K in March with steep upward revisions that lifted last month's gain, but personal income is not quite keeping pace with price gains. Small wonder, the yield curve temporarily inverted, a sign the bond market is losing faith in a soft landing.




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