This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 April 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 11, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 April 2022

Long-time readings of my weekly musings no doubt know I would never let Astros Opening Day pass without comment.  Not to disappoint, I’ll simply point out that yesterdays Opening Day win versus the Los Angeles Angels represents the Astros 10th consecutive opening day victory, tying the Major League record set by the Boston Beaneaters, who won ten in a row between 1887-96.  The Astros have not lost an Opening Day game since their move to the American League in 2013.

 

In an otherwise calm week of data, Wednesday's release of the FOMC minutes stirred things up as comments showed committee members agreeing that elevated inflation and the tight labor market at present warrant balance sheet reduction to begin soon. However, the FOMC minutes also stressed that current economic indicators continue to point to strong activity, which was affirmed by the strong domestic demand that drove the ISM services index higher in March and kept the February trade balance at a record deficit.




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The release of the transcript of President Trump\'s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week\'s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.

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During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.

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This week brought glimpses of market stabilization after weeks of turmoil. Although consumers seem unfazed by the uproar, tighter credit conditions coming down the pipeline will likely weigh on growth.

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The sudden stop in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic means that many businesses will need to rely on their cash reserves to survive the next few months.

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The recent surge in COVID-19 cases indicates that elected officials re-opened the economy too soon, that too many Americans are flaunting social distancing guidelines, and that the virus is likely to be around longer than we’d hoped.

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The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.

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This week\'s light calendar of economic reports showed supply chain disruptions tugging a little at economic growth.

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core CPI remained elevated in November at a 4.0% annual rate, a string of slower monthly prints suggests that disinflation has more room to run.


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