This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 April 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 11, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 April 2022

Long-time readings of my weekly musings no doubt know I would never let Astros Opening Day pass without comment.  Not to disappoint, I’ll simply point out that yesterdays Opening Day win versus the Los Angeles Angels represents the Astros 10th consecutive opening day victory, tying the Major League record set by the Boston Beaneaters, who won ten in a row between 1887-96.  The Astros have not lost an Opening Day game since their move to the American League in 2013.

 

In an otherwise calm week of data, Wednesday's release of the FOMC minutes stirred things up as comments showed committee members agreeing that elevated inflation and the tight labor market at present warrant balance sheet reduction to begin soon. However, the FOMC minutes also stressed that current economic indicators continue to point to strong activity, which was affirmed by the strong domestic demand that drove the ISM services index higher in March and kept the February trade balance at a record deficit.




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The July employment report brought with it a crossing of the Sahm Rule threshold. That means we\'re either headed for recession, or about to break yet another recession rule this unique cycle. Either way, the Fed is getting ready to cut.

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Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury\'s turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States.

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7 Interest Rate Watch for more detail. In other news, retail sales data disappointed as higher prices factor into spending and industrial activity continued to recover but remains beset by supply issues.

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Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.

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The Consumer Price Index ended the year at 2.9% year-over-year, which is a minor improvement from its 3.1% rate in January 2024 and points to stalled progress on the road back to the Federal Reserve\'s 2% inflation target.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 October 2022

Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 January 2025

Initial jobless claims increased to a six-week high, rising to a seasonally adjusted level of 223K for the week ended January 18. The Southern California wildfires played a major role in the rise, increasing by 61K on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 September 2022

The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.

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As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 March 2022

Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine continues to consume nearly all media attention and has created a level of volatility that is not yet reflected in the data released this week.


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