This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 May 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/May 15, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 May 2020

U.S. - April Employment Plummets

  • April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.
  • The unemployment rate jumped 10.3 percentage points to 14.7%, the highest since World War II, but the BLS suggested the true rate was near 20%.
  • The employment-to-population ratio dropped 8.7 percentage points to 51.3%, the lowest on record.
  • The May nonfarm payrolls report will be awful as well. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, have continued to pour in, reaching a cumulative 33 million.

 

Global - Global Economic Downturn Intensifies

  • The past week saw further evidence of a more widespread and faster downturn across the global economy.
  • Canadian March employment and Eurozone March retail sales both fell sharply. In addition, a much larger fall in the April global services PMI (to 24.0) than in the manufacturing PMI (to 39.8) suggests the negative effects from COVID-19 are most noticeable in the service sector.
  • The Bank of England held policy steady, but said a large decline in U.K. GDP was likely in H1-2020, suggesting a growing risk of further quantitative easing before too long.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 October 2022

Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 February 2021

Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month\'s 227,000-job drop.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 December 2020

Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 August 2020

There were more signs of global recovery this week and PMI surveys improved further across the world.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 November 2020

The combination of the election outcome and a workable vaccine boosted financial markets and set the background music for this week’s short list of indicators.

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Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2020

The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 May 2022

While small business enthusiasm appears to have stalled, as owners are concerned about their ability to continue to pass on higher costs to consumers, cautious enthusiasm around rookie Jeremy Pena’s start persists.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 December 2020

Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020

Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.


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