U.S. - April Employment Plummets
- April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.
- The unemployment rate jumped 10.3 percentage points to 14.7%, the highest since World War II, but the BLS suggested the true rate was near 20%.
- The employment-to-population ratio dropped 8.7 percentage points to 51.3%, the lowest on record.
- The May nonfarm payrolls report will be awful as well. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, have continued to pour in, reaching a cumulative 33 million.
Global - Global Economic Downturn Intensifies
- The past week saw further evidence of a more widespread and faster downturn across the global economy.
- Canadian March employment and Eurozone March retail sales both fell sharply. In addition, a much larger fall in the April global services PMI (to 24.0) than in the manufacturing PMI (to 39.8) suggests the negative effects from COVID-19 are most noticeable in the service sector.
- The Bank of England held policy steady, but said a large decline in U.K. GDP was likely in H1-2020, suggesting a growing risk of further quantitative easing before too long.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 October 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 31, 2022
Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 February 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 10, 2021
Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month\'s 227,000-job drop.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 14, 2020
Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2020
There were more signs of global recovery this week and PMI surveys improved further across the world.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 14, 2020
The combination of the election outcome and a workable vaccine boosted financial markets and set the background music for this week’s short list of indicators.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 04, 2020
Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 15, 2020
The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2022
While small business enthusiasm appears to have stalled, as owners are concerned about their ability to continue to pass on higher costs to consumers, cautious enthusiasm around rookie Jeremy Pena’s start persists.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 09, 2020
Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 26, 2020
Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.
