U.S. - April Employment Plummets
- April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.
- The unemployment rate jumped 10.3 percentage points to 14.7%, the highest since World War II, but the BLS suggested the true rate was near 20%.
- The employment-to-population ratio dropped 8.7 percentage points to 51.3%, the lowest on record.
- The May nonfarm payrolls report will be awful as well. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, have continued to pour in, reaching a cumulative 33 million.
Global - Global Economic Downturn Intensifies
- The past week saw further evidence of a more widespread and faster downturn across the global economy.
- Canadian March employment and Eurozone March retail sales both fell sharply. In addition, a much larger fall in the April global services PMI (to 24.0) than in the manufacturing PMI (to 39.8) suggests the negative effects from COVID-19 are most noticeable in the service sector.
- The Bank of England held policy steady, but said a large decline in U.K. GDP was likely in H1-2020, suggesting a growing risk of further quantitative easing before too long.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 20, 2020
Data continue to reflect an economy digging itself out of the lockdown-induced slump.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 December 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 21, 2021
7 Interest Rate Watch for more detail. In other news, retail sales data disappointed as higher prices factor into spending and industrial activity continued to recover but remains beset by supply issues.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 11, 2020
The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 July 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2021
Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 August 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 24, 2021
The Wells Fargo Economics team notes in the Commentary that new COVID cases in New Zealand disrupted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand\'s plan to tighten monetary policy this week.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 January 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2022
As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 October 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 31, 2022
Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 September 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 28, 2019
The release of the transcript of President Trump\'s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week\'s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2023
Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.
