U.S. Outlook
The U.S. is in a severe recession caused by the sudden shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the lock down began, the nation has lost 21.4 million jobs. Employers cut 881,000 in March and another 20.5 million in April, the largest one-month loss in the nation’s history. Losses already exceed those of the Great Recession, in which 8.7 million Americans were laid off.
Texas Outlook
More than 1.8 million workers in Texas have filed initial claims for unemployment insurance since mid-March. Though claims peaked in early April, they remain elevated as the Texas Workforce Commission struggles to process a backlog of applications. Employment data for the state and its 25 metro areas won’t be released until May 22, but unemployment rates and job loss percentages will likely mirror that of the U.S.
Houston Outlook
Nearly 380,000 Houstonians have filed for unemployment insurance between March 21 and May 2. Sectors with the most claims include full-service restaurants, offices of dentists, temporary help services, department stores, and limited-service restaurants. Local claims will likely top 400,000 by the end of May. Houston’s unemployment rate will mirror the national rate, hitting the mid-teens in April and possibly reaching 20 percent in May.
Energy Outlook
The oil markets have begun the slow and painful recovery process from the collapse brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the peak, 4 billion people lived under some form of restriction or isolation, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Since mid-April, 65 countries have reopened. IEA expects the number of people living under restrictions should drop to 2.8 billion by the end of May. Another 85 countries will ease restrictions in June.
U.S. Trends
Baker Hughes reports the number of rigs actively drilling for oil or gas fell to 339 in mid-May, a 57.4 percent drop from since the first of the year. There are fewer rigs working in the U.S. today than there were at the bottom of the fracking bust when count fell to 404 rigs in May ’16.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 December 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 15, 2022
Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 June 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 14, 2023
An unexpected spike in jobless claims is a sign that cracks are forming in the labor market. Higher mortgage rates look to be hindering a housing market rebound.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 29, 2020
Employers added jobs for the fourth consecutive month in August, bringing the total number of jobs recovered from the virus-related low to 10.5 million.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 25, 2020
The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 May 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 17, 2023
In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2020
It may be a holiday-shortened week, but there have been as many developments and economic indicators packed into three days as we can recall seeing in any other week this year.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 March 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 27, 2022
The fact that capital goods shipments surprised on the upside was one of the few things that went right in this week\'s durable goods report.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 July 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 30, 2021
Visiting from Texas, it felt more like fall, which like the Texas cold-snap last February just goes to show that it’s a case of what you’re used to.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 June 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 22, 2020
Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.
