U.S. Outlook
The U.S. is in a severe recession caused by the sudden shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the lock down began, the nation has lost 21.4 million jobs. Employers cut 881,000 in March and another 20.5 million in April, the largest one-month loss in the nation’s history. Losses already exceed those of the Great Recession, in which 8.7 million Americans were laid off.
Texas Outlook
More than 1.8 million workers in Texas have filed initial claims for unemployment insurance since mid-March. Though claims peaked in early April, they remain elevated as the Texas Workforce Commission struggles to process a backlog of applications. Employment data for the state and its 25 metro areas won’t be released until May 22, but unemployment rates and job loss percentages will likely mirror that of the U.S.
Houston Outlook
Nearly 380,000 Houstonians have filed for unemployment insurance between March 21 and May 2. Sectors with the most claims include full-service restaurants, offices of dentists, temporary help services, department stores, and limited-service restaurants. Local claims will likely top 400,000 by the end of May. Houston’s unemployment rate will mirror the national rate, hitting the mid-teens in April and possibly reaching 20 percent in May.
Energy Outlook
The oil markets have begun the slow and painful recovery process from the collapse brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the peak, 4 billion people lived under some form of restriction or isolation, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Since mid-April, 65 countries have reopened. IEA expects the number of people living under restrictions should drop to 2.8 billion by the end of May. Another 85 countries will ease restrictions in June.
U.S. Trends
Baker Hughes reports the number of rigs actively drilling for oil or gas fell to 339 in mid-May, a 57.4 percent drop from since the first of the year. There are fewer rigs working in the U.S. today than there were at the bottom of the fracking bust when count fell to 404 rigs in May ’16.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2020
Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 June 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 09, 2020
Data this week continued to suggest the U.S. economy hit rock bottom in April. Still, it is a long road to recovery and the pickup in economic activity will be gradual.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 September 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 17, 2024
The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed at 0.3% month-over-month in August. This was slightly higher than consensus forecasts and marked the fastest price increase in four months.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 10, 2024
The Federal Reserve can afford patience thanks to a resilient labor market. During April, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 net jobs, continuing a string of solid monthly payroll additions.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 June 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 25, 2022
The biggest economic news was Fed Chair Powell presenting the Federal Reserve\'s semiannual Monetary Policy report to Congress this week.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 August 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2023
The FOMC meeting minutes acknowledged the economy\'s resilience and continued to stress the Committee\'s resolve to bring inflation back down toward its 2% goal.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 October 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 22, 2021
The first economic data released this week in the United States reinforced the theme that labor supply and demand are struggling to come into balance.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 23, 2024
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was a bit firm in April, rising 0.5% amid higher services prices, though it did come with slight downward revisions to prior month\'s data.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 May 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 23, 2023
Economic data continue to suggest the U.S. economy is only gradually losing momentum. Consumers continue to spend, and industrial and housing activity are seeing some stabilization.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 01, 2020
Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.