U.S. - Wait and See
- The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.
- It remains too early to assess the effect of the re-opening on corona virus case growth, which continues to slow in a fairly broad-based manner, despite an impressive—albeit late-in-the-game—ramp-up in testing.
- Nearly 2.5 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims the week ended May 16, bringing the cumulative total over the past nine weeks to more than 38 million.
Global - U.S.-China Tensions Building; EM Central Banks Easing
- Along with the intensification of COVID-19, U.S.-China relations have started to intensify again as well. Heightened rhetoric from the U.S. administration has recently turned to action, and while we are not yet ready to build any material escalations or additional tariffs into our forecasts, we acknowledge U.S.-China trade tensions could be deteriorating.
- Multiple central banks in emerging markets met this week to assess monetary policy with rate cuts occurring across Asia and EMEA. With inflation on a downward trajectory, additional monetary policy space to cut rates has been created and as of now, we believe EM central banks will continue to ease policy.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 30, 2021
In other economic news, output continues to ramp up across the U.S., even as the resurgence in COVID cases is leading to some pullback in consumer engagement.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 20, 2022
Financial markets reacted in a zig-zag pattern to this week\'s economic data ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Price pressure is still not showing the sustained slowdown the Fed needs before it takes its foot off the throttle of tighter policy.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 10, 2022
The ISM services index came in stronger than expected, and the underlying details pointed to service sector resilience with business activity and new orders notching their highest reading this year.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 04, 2020
Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 12, 2021
The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2021
The CDC\'s relaxation of its mask mandate occurred mid-May, and as data for that month begins rolling in this week, it is evident there is no lack of demand. Supplies, on the other hand, are a worsening problem.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 27, 2022
The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 29, 2022
I can understand how the opportunity to participate in lots of scintillating economic policy discussions could make fishing look exciting in comparison.