This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 July 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jul 25, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 July 2020

U.S. - Jobless Claims Rise, Housing Market Rebounding

  • Initial jobless claims rose to just over 1.4 million for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims fell to about 16.2 million. Initial claims edging higher suggests that the resurgence of COVID-19 may be taking a toll on the labor market recovery.
  • Record low mortgage rates have spurred a rebound in the housing market. Existing home sales jumped 20.7% and new home sales rose 13.8% during June. More improvement is on the way, as purchase mortgage applications continue to climb.
  • The Leading Economic Index (LEI) moderated slightly, but still increased 2.0%. Overall, the U.S. economic recovery continues, but the pace of improvement appears to be slowing.

 

Global - COVID-19 Outbreak Set to Disrupt Q2 Global Activity

  • This week’s data releases offered more insight into the severity of the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic as well as subsequent lock down and social distancing measures. South Korea—one of the first countries to release its Q2 GDP data—fell into recession with Q2 growth contracting 3.3% quarter-over-quarter.
  • As COVID-19 cases continue to surge in South Africa, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted to cut its repo rate for the fifth time, reducing the key rate 25 bps to 3.50%. Elsewhere, Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs recovered more than expected in July, moving back into expansionary territory.



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As you may have already seen, inflation is running almost as hot as the stock of our favorite bank. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.0% year-over-year in December, the fastest increase in nearly 40 years.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 February 2020

Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2022

The real estate sector has been significantly affected by rising interest rates, with total housing starts falling 8.1% in September. Peering ahead, the forward-looking Leading Economic Index points to a recession in the coming year.

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During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 September 2022

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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

February\'s employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed\'s shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy.

Rising COVID-19 Cases Put A Damper On Re-openings

The rising number of COVID-19 infections gained momentum this week, with most of the rise occurring in the South and West. The rise in infections is larger than can be explained by increased testing alone and is slowing re-openings.

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Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 March 2023

Looking at Q4 GDP, Australia\'s economy grew by less than expected, GDP was flat for the quarter in both Canada and Switzerland, and Sweden\'s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.


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