This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Nov 23, 2019

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019

U.S. - Steady for Now

  • Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.
  • Mixed reports this week about the prospects of a Phase I trade deal took some of the steam out of the recent market rally. We continue to expect a stalemate, while recognizing the significant downside risks of a deterioration in trade negotiations.
  • Housing starts and existing home sales both rose solidly in October as lower mortgage rates boost residential activity.

Global Review - USMCA Getting Close?

  • Encouragingly, the outlook for USMCA has improved of late, with key Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives signaling that they could sign off on the trade pact soon, perhaps even by year-end, though we doubt it could be voted on that quickly.
  • Core inflation in Japan remained tepid in October, at just 0.3% year-over-year, despite an increase in the country’s VAT. The implementation of free preschool education helped offset the VAT’s upward pressure on the consumer price index.
  • As the data continue to come out, it appears increasingly likely the fourth quarter will be yet another quarter of weak-but positive economic growth in the U.K. and the Eurozone.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 September 2020

European activity is surging. Germany and Italy are leading the way, but France is close behind despite an ongoing rise in cases. The Google data are a bit outdated, but are hard to reconcile with today’s weak Eurozone services PMI figures.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 April 2020

Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 April 2020

The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 November 2020

As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 March 2020

The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 September 2020

In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 December 2019

The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 December 2020

This week marked the first U.S. COVID vaccinations and the imminent rollout of a second vaccine.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 December 2021

7 Interest Rate Watch for more detail. In other news, retail sales data disappointed as higher prices factor into spending and industrial activity continued to recover but remains beset by supply issues.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 October 2019

Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% to a 5.38 million-unit pace in September, but sales and prices were still up enough in the quarter that they will add solidly to Q3 GDP growth.


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