Last week, consumer and producer price indices showed inflation pressures continuing to gradually ease in July. Inflation's descent has occurred alongside a streak of stronger-than-expected economic data, and this week was no exception. Retail sales surprised to the upside in July, rising 0.7% over the month. Growth was fairly broad-based, with nine of the 13 retailer categories reporting increased sales (chart). Control group sales, which feeds into the Bureau of Economic Analysis' calculation of real personal consumption expenditures, rose an even stronger 1.0%. The outturn presents some upside risk to our 2.0% (annualized) call for real GDP in the third quarter; the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q3 jumped nearly a full percentage point to 5.0% on the sales data.
The renewed strength in retail sales, if sustained, could lend some support to the factory sector in the coming months. Industrial production rose an above-consensus 1.0% in July, bolstered by a surge in utilities output and motor vehicle & parts manufacturing. While headline production came in better than expected, growth in manufacturing activity has been choppy this year—the overall level of manufacturing output stands just 0.2% above where it started 2023. Manufacturers remain broadly cautious of not overproducing and careful not to take on too much inventory in this tight credit environment.
Borrowing costs continue to rise. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate crested a 21-year high this week (see Credit Market Insights), driven in large part by the recent ascent in longer-dated Treasury yields (see Interest Rate Watch). Higher mortgage rates crimped the housing market for the better part of 2022. Still, home buying demand has found firmer footing this year, especially in the new home market where builders are offering price cuts, rate buy-downs and other incentives to move on their inventory. The trend improvement in new home sales has put some wind in the sails of residential construction (chart). Single-family building permits rose for the sixth straight month in July and are running at a 930,000-unit annual pace. Permits typically lead housing starts by one to two months, and the recent acceleration suggests that single-family home construction will continue to recover this year.
In short, activity data show the U.S. economy expanding at a solid rate. The underlying resilience has led many economists, us included, to upgrade their outlooks. The minutes from the July FOMC meeting rang with a similar tune, as the Committee noted "the economy had been showing considerable momentum." At the same time, the FOMC stressed that "inflation remained unacceptably high" and appeared resolute in holding its benchmark rate higher for longer to ensure price growth is sustainably brought down toward its 2% objective. The participants also cited upside risks to inflation that, if realized, would necessitate further policy tightening. The hawkish stance underpins our expectation that restrictive monetary policy, even in the face of strong activity, will tip the U.S. economy into a mild recession in early 2024.
13 January 2021 Monthly Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 19, 2021
The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 13, 2021
Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.
Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 29, 2020
The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.
June 2020 Economy At A Glance
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 18, 2020
The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 January 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 23, 2021
Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.
September 2020 Economy At A Glance
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 19, 2020
A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 18, 2020
Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 16, 2019
Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 20, 2022
Financial markets reacted in a zig-zag pattern to this week\'s economic data ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Price pressure is still not showing the sustained slowdown the Fed needs before it takes its foot off the throttle of tighter policy.
