This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 December 2019

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Dec 21, 2019

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 December 2019

U.S. - Review Expansion Poised to Continue into the Next Decade

  • President Trump became the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the House, but removal by the Senate is highly unlikely. The House also passed the USMCA, which should be signed into law in early 2020. This, along with the phase one deal announced last Friday, should remove some uncertainty as we head into the new year.
  • Boeing announced it is halting production of the 737 MAX. We estimate this will drag 0.5 points off Q1 GDP growth.
  • November industrial production jumped, but it was largely due to GM resuming production post-strike. Residential activity continues to post solid gains.

 

Global Review - Chinese Data Better, Eurozone Mixed, Banxico Cuts

  • The international economic data started the week on a positive note, as data out of China showed a broadly encouraging picture for November.
  • The preliminary Eurozone PMIs for December were more mixed. The manufacturing sector PMI gave back November’s gain, but the service sector PMI resiliently remained in expansionary territory.
  • Both the Bank of England and Bank of Mexico met this week, with the former keeping rates steady and the latter cutting its main policy rate 25 bps, the fourth time it has done so this year.



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The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory.

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Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.

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As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.

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During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.

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The Texans have earned a top draft position yet again, the Cowboys are home again for the remainder of the playoffs, and inflation concerns that continue to mount, along with ongoing supply chain disruptions, are weighing on homebuilder confidence.

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The FOMC hiked the federal funds rate by 25 bps on Wednesday amid continued strength in the labor market and elevated inflation.

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A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.

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The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.

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Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.


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