This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 May 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jun 08, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 May 2021

U.S: Supply Chain Woes Tug at Growth and Send Prices Higher

This week's light calendar of economic reports showed supply chain disruptions tugging a little at economic growth. New home sales are being held back by record low inventories, as higher construction costs are slowing starts. While a slightly larger drop in consumer confidence and advance durable goods orders garnered headlines, hiring continues to ramp up and business fixed investment advanced solidly, reflecting the urgency of the supply side to catch up with demand.

International: Less Positive on the U.S. Dollar Outlook

 It was an especially light week on the international economic data front. On Tuesday, however, we released our monthly International Economic Outlook for May. Perhaps the biggest change in our forecast was a somewhat less positive view on the U.S. dollar going forward. 




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A recent strong report from the National Association of Homebuilders set the tone for another round of strong housing data. The NAHB index rose two points to a record high 85.

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More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.

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In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.

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Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.

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The real estate sector has been significantly affected by rising interest rates, with total housing starts falling 8.1% in September. Peering ahead, the forward-looking Leading Economic Index points to a recession in the coming year.

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Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.

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Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.


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