This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 May 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jun 08, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 May 2021

U.S: Supply Chain Woes Tug at Growth and Send Prices Higher

This week's light calendar of economic reports showed supply chain disruptions tugging a little at economic growth. New home sales are being held back by record low inventories, as higher construction costs are slowing starts. While a slightly larger drop in consumer confidence and advance durable goods orders garnered headlines, hiring continues to ramp up and business fixed investment advanced solidly, reflecting the urgency of the supply side to catch up with demand.

International: Less Positive on the U.S. Dollar Outlook

 It was an especially light week on the international economic data front. On Tuesday, however, we released our monthly International Economic Outlook for May. Perhaps the biggest change in our forecast was a somewhat less positive view on the U.S. dollar going forward. 




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The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

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Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.

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There were more signs of global recovery this week and PMI surveys improved further across the world.

August 2020 Economy At A Glance

Downstream involves the refining and processing of oil and natural gas into fuels, chemicals, and plastics. All three sectors are well-represented in Houston.

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Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.

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Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.

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During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.

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An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

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Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March.


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