This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 May 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jun 08, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 May 2021

U.S: Supply Chain Woes Tug at Growth and Send Prices Higher

This week's light calendar of economic reports showed supply chain disruptions tugging a little at economic growth. New home sales are being held back by record low inventories, as higher construction costs are slowing starts. While a slightly larger drop in consumer confidence and advance durable goods orders garnered headlines, hiring continues to ramp up and business fixed investment advanced solidly, reflecting the urgency of the supply side to catch up with demand.

International: Less Positive on the U.S. Dollar Outlook

 It was an especially light week on the international economic data front. On Tuesday, however, we released our monthly International Economic Outlook for May. Perhaps the biggest change in our forecast was a somewhat less positive view on the U.S. dollar going forward. 




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Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.

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In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

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In March retail sales fell 1.0%, manufacturing production slipped 0.5% and the consumer price index rose a modest 0.1%.

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The first economic data released this week in the United States reinforced the theme that labor supply and demand are struggling to come into balance.

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U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.

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The combination of the election outcome and a workable vaccine boosted financial markets and set the background music for this week’s short list of indicators.


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