U.S. - Labor Focus
- In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.
- Aside from claims, inflation data were also a highlight this week. Prices continued to pick up in August, but we expect it will be quite some time before inflation consistently exceeds 2%, preventing the Fed from lifting interest rates anytime soon.
- In our updated forecast this week, we released our initial estimates for 2022. At a high level, we expect the U.S. economy to grow above trend at 2.7% in 2022. For further details on our latest forecast, please see attached our Monthly Economic Outlook.
Global - ECB and BoC Relatively Quiet This Week
- It was a relatively quiet meeting for policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) this week. The policy statement was almost a verbatim copy of July’s and President Lagarde mainly toed the line in her comments.
- We remain constructive on the Euro zone recovery, but we will be watching the recent COVID-19 outbreak and the government responses very closely in the weeks ahead.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) also met this week, and like the ECB it mostly left monetary policy unchanged. The central bank noted that the “bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July.”
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2022
July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 February 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 14, 2022
Deep thought for the week, if a tree falls in the forest, or an Olympics occurs, and no one is there to hear it or see it, did it really occur?
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 June 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 11, 2024
The U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations. Employers added 272K net new jobs in May, which was stronger than even the most bullish forecaster among 77 submissions to the Bloomberg survey.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2020
The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 May 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2021
This week\'s light calendar of economic reports showed supply chain disruptions tugging a little at economic growth.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 June 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 26, 2021
Okay, so I’ve gotten about half a dozen calls since Wednesday asking if I saw the May CPI numbers that came out this week.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 13, 2022
The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 10, 2020
As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 June 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 22, 2020
Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2023
Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.
