U.S. - Labor Focus
- In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.
- Aside from claims, inflation data were also a highlight this week. Prices continued to pick up in August, but we expect it will be quite some time before inflation consistently exceeds 2%, preventing the Fed from lifting interest rates anytime soon.
- In our updated forecast this week, we released our initial estimates for 2022. At a high level, we expect the U.S. economy to grow above trend at 2.7% in 2022. For further details on our latest forecast, please see attached our Monthly Economic Outlook.
Global - ECB and BoC Relatively Quiet This Week
- It was a relatively quiet meeting for policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) this week. The policy statement was almost a verbatim copy of July’s and President Lagarde mainly toed the line in her comments.
- We remain constructive on the Euro zone recovery, but we will be watching the recent COVID-19 outbreak and the government responses very closely in the weeks ahead.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) also met this week, and like the ECB it mostly left monetary policy unchanged. The central bank noted that the “bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July.”
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 11, 2020
The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 08, 2023
This week brought glimpses of market stabilization after weeks of turmoil. Although consumers seem unfazed by the uproar, tighter credit conditions coming down the pipeline will likely weigh on growth.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 June 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 13, 2022
CPI increases continue to sizzle like this weekend’s temperature, putting consumers in a worse mood than Texas Rangers fans (with their 9.5 games back $500 million middle infield).
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 July 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2021
Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 08, 2021
Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 December 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 21, 2019
President Trump became the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the House, but removal by the Senate is highly unlikely. The House also passed the USMCA, which should be signed into law in early 2020.
Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 31, 2022
Unlike the local temperatures, data released this week showed U.S. economic growth modestly declined in Q2.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 07, 2023
Looking at Q4 GDP, Australia\'s economy grew by less than expected, GDP was flat for the quarter in both Canada and Switzerland, and Sweden\'s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 10, 2020
As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.
