U.S. - Labor Focus
- In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.
- Aside from claims, inflation data were also a highlight this week. Prices continued to pick up in August, but we expect it will be quite some time before inflation consistently exceeds 2%, preventing the Fed from lifting interest rates anytime soon.
- In our updated forecast this week, we released our initial estimates for 2022. At a high level, we expect the U.S. economy to grow above trend at 2.7% in 2022. For further details on our latest forecast, please see attached our Monthly Economic Outlook.
Global - ECB and BoC Relatively Quiet This Week
- It was a relatively quiet meeting for policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) this week. The policy statement was almost a verbatim copy of July’s and President Lagarde mainly toed the line in her comments.
- We remain constructive on the Euro zone recovery, but we will be watching the recent COVID-19 outbreak and the government responses very closely in the weeks ahead.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) also met this week, and like the ECB it mostly left monetary policy unchanged. The central bank noted that the “bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July.”
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 23, 2024
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was a bit firm in April, rising 0.5% amid higher services prices, though it did come with slight downward revisions to prior month\'s data.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 January 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 20, 2023
The housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed\'s efforts to slow the economy, and this week\'s data showed the industry continues to reel.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 21, 2023
Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 04, 2020
It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 20, 2023
In March retail sales fell 1.0%, manufacturing production slipped 0.5% and the consumer price index rose a modest 0.1%.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 December 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 07, 2019
The latest hiring data are an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy is withstanding the global slowdown and continued trade-related uncertainty.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.
Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2020
In the immediate fallout after the lockdowns in the early stages of this pandemic, there was a lot of discussion about the shape of the recovery.
