This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 September 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Sep 15, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 September 2020

U.S. - First Impressions Are Not Always Right

The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory. For details on the Fed meeting this week, see Interest Rate Watch on page 6. On the face of things, it was a disappointing week for economic data. Almost every report this week was on the wrong side of expectations. Relative to consensus estimates, gains fell short, losses were larger and unemployment figures were worse.




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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.

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Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.

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Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.

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Consumer momentum remains largely intact, inflation continues to inch back down, albeit at a slower pace, and rate-sensitive sectors stayed in a holding pattern.

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