This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 September 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Sep 15, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 September 2020

U.S. - First Impressions Are Not Always Right

The details were generally more favorable. The retail sectors hurt most by the pandemic saw gains in August, factory output is growing and soaring homebuilder confidence suggests soft construction data this week may be transitory. For details on the Fed meeting this week, see Interest Rate Watch on page 6. On the face of things, it was a disappointing week for economic data. Almost every report this week was on the wrong side of expectations. Relative to consensus estimates, gains fell short, losses were larger and unemployment figures were worse.




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Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.

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During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.

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Employers added jobs for the fourth consecutive month in August, bringing the total number of jobs recovered from the virus-related low to 10.5 million.

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The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.

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The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).

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Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.

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Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.

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The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that nonfarm payrolls increased 528,000 for the month of July, easily topping estimates, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.5%.


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