This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 March 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Mar 21, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 March 2020

U.S - Shock and Awful

  • Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Financial markets seized up as it became clear just how much, and for how long, economic activity could be interrupted.
  • The situation has rapidly progressed beyond being either a “demand shock” or a “supply shock”; it is an unprecedented interruption and reorganization of economic life.
  • We still have very few clues on how sharply spending will fall, but the incoming data will be unprecedented. Jobless claims will be in the millions next week.

 

Global - Easing Everywhere

  • It was a wild week for the global economy as concerns continued to mount surrounding the negative consequences of the coronavirus outbreak. Many central banks across the globe opted to cut interest rates this week, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The central bank cut its policy rate 75 bps to 0.25%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia also cut interest rates 25 bps to 0.25%, and introduced quantitative easing measures. In a surprise move, the BoE cut rates 15 bps and increased its bond purchase program. Among other central banks to ease monetary policy include the central banks of Korea, Chile, Brazil, Turkey and Japan, as well as the ECB.



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European activity is surging. Germany and Italy are leading the way, but France is close behind despite an ongoing rise in cases. The Google data are a bit outdated, but are hard to reconcile with today’s weak Eurozone services PMI figures.

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The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.

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What a crazy week. It’s hard to worry about something as relatively unimportant as economic trends when one thinks about what folks in Ukraine are enduring, but economies are nonetheless impacted.

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During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.

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This week\'s economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index\'s 24-year history.

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The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.

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Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.

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Restrictions from a renewed COVID outbreak in China, regulatory changes weighing on local financial markets and a potential collapse of Evergrande have all contributed to a slowdown in Chinese economic activity.

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Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.

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An unexpected spike in jobless claims is a sign that cracks are forming in the labor market. Higher mortgage rates look to be hindering a housing market rebound.


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