U.S - A Case in Exogenous Shocks
- Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted.
- We now look for the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) 100 bps at next week’s meeting, which would be the largest single-meeting move on record and bring the FFR lower-bound back to zero.
- Much of the economic data out this week does not yet cover recent weeks’ turmoil, but the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment survey showed signs of consumer confidence beginning to fade.
Global - Global Economy Peering Over the Growth Cliff
- It has been another tumultuous week for global financial markets as the global outlook continues to darken quickly. Earlier this week, we cut our 2020 global GDP forecast sharply to 1.9%, though the risks to even that revised forecast are likely now tilted to the downside.
- Given the fast-changing situation, policymakers are reacting rapidly. The Bank of England surprised with an emergency rate cut this week and the U.K. government announced fiscal stimulus, while the European Central Bank eased monetary policy as well. Look for further global central bank easing in the weeks and months ahead.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 13, 2022
The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2022
July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 29, 2022
I can understand how the opportunity to participate in lots of scintillating economic policy discussions could make fishing look exciting in comparison.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 24, 2022
The Texans have earned a top draft position yet again, the Cowboys are home again for the remainder of the playoffs, and inflation concerns that continue to mount, along with ongoing supply chain disruptions, are weighing on homebuilder confidence.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 24, 2020
The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 12, 2020
Weekly first time unemployment claims highlighted an extraordinarily slow week for economic news. Jobless claims fell slightly but continuing claims fell by one million.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 20, 2023
In March retail sales fell 1.0%, manufacturing production slipped 0.5% and the consumer price index rose a modest 0.1%.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 10, 2020
As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 21, 2020
Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.