U.S - A Case in Exogenous Shocks
- Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted.
- We now look for the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) 100 bps at next week’s meeting, which would be the largest single-meeting move on record and bring the FFR lower-bound back to zero.
- Much of the economic data out this week does not yet cover recent weeks’ turmoil, but the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment survey showed signs of consumer confidence beginning to fade.
Global - Global Economy Peering Over the Growth Cliff
- It has been another tumultuous week for global financial markets as the global outlook continues to darken quickly. Earlier this week, we cut our 2020 global GDP forecast sharply to 1.9%, though the risks to even that revised forecast are likely now tilted to the downside.
- Given the fast-changing situation, policymakers are reacting rapidly. The Bank of England surprised with an emergency rate cut this week and the U.K. government announced fiscal stimulus, while the European Central Bank eased monetary policy as well. Look for further global central bank easing in the weeks and months ahead.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 04, 2020
Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.
Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2019
Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 21, 2020
Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 11, 2020
The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 24, 2020
A recent strong report from the National Association of Homebuilders set the tone for another round of strong housing data. The NAHB index rose two points to a record high 85.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 April 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 05, 2022
The key factor that will drive interest rates is the Fed’s belated effort to rein-in inflation.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 28, 2020
Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.
