This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 March 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Mar 07, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 March 2020

U.S - Data Look Great, If Only It Were Still February

  • An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.
  • The ISM manufacturing index narrowly remained in expansion territory, despite some early signs of virus-related supply disruptions, while survey data for the service sector provided conflicting signals.
  • Friday’s jobs report reiterated the health of the economy in February, with employers adding 273K jobs. The report, however, seems almost stale in the face of the ongoing outbreak.

 

Global - Tumultuous Week for the Global Economy

  • It was a tumultuous week for the global economy, as concerns continued to grow about the economic and human impact from the spread of COVID-19.
  • On Tuesday, finance ministers and central bankers from the G-7 group of nations held a conference call to discuss possible economic policy responses to disruptions caused by the virus.
  • Outside of the Federal Reserve, only two major developed market central banks took action this week. Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada cut their policy rates, by 25 and 50 bps, respectively.



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Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.

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Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.

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Although the recovery from the COVID recession is still far from over, the U.S. economy is bouncing back faster than many expected.

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The housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed\'s efforts to slow the economy, and this week\'s data showed the industry continues to reel.

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Although payroll growth is easing, the labor market remains relatively tight. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in October, slightly higher than the cycle low of 3.4% first hit in January 2023, but still low compared to historical averages.

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Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%.

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core CPI remained elevated in November at a 4.0% annual rate, a string of slower monthly prints suggests that disinflation has more room to run.

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The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

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The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.

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We got our first look at Q1 GDP, which downshifted to a 1.6% annualized pace and was accompanied by a hot core PCE deflator reading.


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