This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 January 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 25, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 January 2020

U.S. Review - Something in the Air 

  • Fears of an escalating coronavirus outbreak reached the United States this week, as a Washington state man became the first confirmed domestic case and the international total reached more than 800.
  • We expect any short-term economic impact to be limited and concentrated in East Asia, but the U.S. economy is certainly more vulnerable to shocks at this stage in the cycle. Sentiment matters.
  • On the home front, December existing home sales rose a solid 3.6% to a 5.54 million-unit pace as the housing market renaissance continues.

 

Global Review - China’s Coronavirus Spreading to Financial Markets

  • For the last three weeks, a new coronavirus has originated in China and spread across Asia. Most recently, the virus was confirmed to have entered the United States, sparking reminders of the SARS epidemic that plagued China and Asia in the early 2000s.
  • These fears have reached financial markets, with Asian and Chinese asset prices coming under pressure over the last few weeks. With travel restrictions put in place and the Chinese New Year approaching, Chinese economic activity data could be affected; however, we would expect any disruptions to be short-lived.



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Economic data came in largely as expected this week and suggest continued economic recovery.

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During January, payrolls jumped by 517K, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 4.5%-4.75% this week.

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While small business enthusiasm appears to have stalled, as owners are concerned about their ability to continue to pass on higher costs to consumers, cautious enthusiasm around rookie Jeremy Pena’s start persists.

The Regional Breakdown Of A Labor Market In Meltdown

Employment fell in all 50 states and 43 states saw their unemployment rate rise to a record in April. The damage is already hard to fathom-a 28% unemployment rate in Nevada and still another month of job losses ahead.

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Stronger-than-expected inflation, underpinned by the mildly hawkish minutes from the January FOMC meeting, drove a move higher in mortgage rates.

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In March retail sales fell 1.0%, manufacturing production slipped 0.5% and the consumer price index rose a modest 0.1%.

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The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.

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During December, payrolls rose by 223K while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% and average hourly earnings eased 0.3%. Job openings (JOLTS) edged down to 10.46 million in November.

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e move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations.

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The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.


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