This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 January 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 25, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 January 2020

U.S. Review - Something in the Air 

  • Fears of an escalating coronavirus outbreak reached the United States this week, as a Washington state man became the first confirmed domestic case and the international total reached more than 800.
  • We expect any short-term economic impact to be limited and concentrated in East Asia, but the U.S. economy is certainly more vulnerable to shocks at this stage in the cycle. Sentiment matters.
  • On the home front, December existing home sales rose a solid 3.6% to a 5.54 million-unit pace as the housing market renaissance continues.

 

Global Review - China’s Coronavirus Spreading to Financial Markets

  • For the last three weeks, a new coronavirus has originated in China and spread across Asia. Most recently, the virus was confirmed to have entered the United States, sparking reminders of the SARS epidemic that plagued China and Asia in the early 2000s.
  • These fears have reached financial markets, with Asian and Chinese asset prices coming under pressure over the last few weeks. With travel restrictions put in place and the Chinese New Year approaching, Chinese economic activity data could be affected; however, we would expect any disruptions to be short-lived.



25 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report

In the second installment of our series on economic risks in the foreseeable future, we analyze the potential for higher inflation in coming years stemming from excess demand.

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Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.

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Financial markets were looking for validation that January\'s unexpected strength was not a fluke and that the downward slide in economic momentum experienced late last year had stabilized.

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Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% to a 5.38 million-unit pace in September, but sales and prices were still up enough in the quarter that they will add solidly to Q3 GDP growth.

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Although payroll growth is easing, the labor market remains relatively tight. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in October, slightly higher than the cycle low of 3.4% first hit in January 2023, but still low compared to historical averages.

November 2020 Economy At A Glance

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation.

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July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.

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The biggest economic news was Fed Chair Powell presenting the Federal Reserve\'s semiannual Monetary Policy report to Congress this week.

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Data this week continued to suggest the U.S. economy hit rock bottom in April. Still, it is a long road to recovery and the pickup in economic activity will be gradual.

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We got our first look at Q1 GDP, which downshifted to a 1.6% annualized pace and was accompanied by a hot core PCE deflator reading.


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