This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 January 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jan 18, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 January 2020

U.S. Review - 2020 Is Off to a Good Start

  • Most of this week’s economic reports showed the economy ended 2019 with strong momentum, while the Senate passage of the USMCA and the signing of Phase I of the China trade deal reduce some of the uncertainty hanging over the outlook.
  • Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years.
  • Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.
  • December retail sales were soft, with a 0.5% gain in core retail sales offset by downward revisions to the prior two months.

 

Global Review - Central Banks Keeping It Easy?

  • Data this week continued to point to further easing from the Bank of England, while dovish commentary from policymakers remains consistent with that narrative. We acknowledge that the case for a BoE rate cut has risen dramatically over the past week, and although our official call is for no change in January, we nonetheless agree that a rate cut is a distinct possibility.
  • In emerging markets, both Turkey and South Africa’s central banks cut interest rates this week, given subdued GDP growth in each country. Elsewhere, Chinese GDP growth held steady in the fourth quarter, and December activity data exceeded expectations, adding to signs of a stabilizing Chinese economy.



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This week marked the first U.S. COVID vaccinations and the imminent rollout of a second vaccine.

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Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine continues to consume nearly all media attention and has created a level of volatility that is not yet reflected in the data released this week.

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July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.

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On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.

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The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-expected pace in Q3, with real GDP increasing at a robust 4.9% annualized rate.

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This week\'s lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week\'s blowout retail sales report.

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The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).

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Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.

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The combination of the election outcome and a workable vaccine boosted financial markets and set the background music for this week’s short list of indicators.

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The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.


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