U.S. - With Little Economic News, Investors Focus on the Virus
- The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.
- Mortgage applications for the purchase of a home rose 5.3% and are now running 33.2% ahead of their year-ago level. Refi-applications are up less, reflecting tighter underwriting.
- Weekly first-time unemployment claims fell slightly more than expected and continuing claims have also come down the past two weeks, but claims for Pandemic Assistance have increased.
- The producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell 0.2% in June and core PPI fell 0.3%. Both were expected to rise modestly.
Global - Signs of Life for the Global Economy
- Recent economic figures portray a global economy that is recovering from its 2020 lows. The June global services PMI rose to 48.0, an even sharper jump that the manufacturing PMI. While confidence surveys are still below pre-COVID levels, they have recouped much of their losses.
- The Euro zone reported an out sized gain in May retail sales, an outcome that could see a smaller decline and quicker rebound in GDP than previously expected. Potential fiscal stimulus and improving COVID-19 case numbers are also positive. Next week China’s Q2 GDP will be closely watched with most–but not all–of the Q1 decline expected to be recouped.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 14, 2022
As with the Mets and Yankees when they ran into the Astros over the last couple days, consumers staying power is showing signs of running out as inflation persists and confidence moves sharply lower.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 15, 2020
April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 09, 2020
Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2023
Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 30 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2021
The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone\'s throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart).
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 November 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 08, 2023
Although payroll growth is easing, the labor market remains relatively tight. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in October, slightly higher than the cycle low of 3.4% first hit in January 2023, but still low compared to historical averages.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 25, 2022
The real estate sector has been significantly affected by rising interest rates, with total housing starts falling 8.1% in September. Peering ahead, the forward-looking Leading Economic Index points to a recession in the coming year.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19August 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 23, 2022
July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 16, 2019
Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 February 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 27, 2022
What a crazy week. It’s hard to worry about something as relatively unimportant as economic trends when one thinks about what folks in Ukraine are enduring, but economies are nonetheless impacted.
