This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 July 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jul 13, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 July 2020

U.S. - With Little Economic News, Investors Focus on the Virus

  • The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.
  • Mortgage applications for the purchase of a home rose 5.3% and are now running 33.2% ahead of their year-ago level. Refi-applications are up less, reflecting tighter underwriting.
  • Weekly first-time unemployment claims fell slightly more than expected and continuing claims have also come down the past two weeks, but claims for Pandemic Assistance have increased.
  • The producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell 0.2% in June and core PPI fell 0.3%. Both were expected to rise modestly.

 

Global - Signs of Life for the Global Economy

  • Recent economic figures portray a global economy that is recovering from its 2020 lows. The June global services PMI rose to 48.0, an even sharper jump that the manufacturing PMI. While confidence surveys are still below pre-COVID levels, they have recouped much of their losses.
  • The Euro zone reported an out sized gain in May retail sales, an outcome that could see a smaller decline and quicker rebound in GDP than previously expected. Potential fiscal stimulus and improving COVID-19 case numbers are also positive. Next week China’s Q2 GDP will be closely watched with most–but not all–of the Q1 decline expected to be recouped.



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