U.S. - A Trade War Armistice? Don't Make it a Holiday Yet
- Optimism soared this week on hopes of a forthcoming trade deal, as equity markets hit all-time highs and the yield curve steepened.
- Due to the lack of concrete details, we are sticking to our assumption that the 15% tariffs on $156 billion of consumer goods imports will go into effect on December 15, but recognize there is some upside potential to growth and rates if a deal is reached.
- Regardless, the economy has shown signs of stabilizing. The ISM non-manufacturing survey beat expectations this week by climbing to 54.7 from a three-year low of 52.6 last month.
Global Review - Central Banks Still Center Stage This Week
- Central banks were back in focus this week, starting with Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official Cash Rate steady at 0.75% and reiterated that it was prepared to ease policy further if needed.
- Elsewhere, the Bank of England opted to keep its Bank Rate at 0.75%, but two BoE members unexpectedly voted to cut interest rates.
- Canada's labor market added fewer jobs than expected in October; however, the unemployment rate remained at a near-record low. Even with the slight drop in October, the Canadian labor market is still performing relatively well.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 14, 2023
An unexpected spike in jobless claims is a sign that cracks are forming in the labor market. Higher mortgage rates look to be hindering a housing market rebound.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2021
This week\'s economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index\'s 24-year history.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 29, 2020
In what was a jam-packed week of economic data, the jobs report, prospects of additional fiscal stimulus and the president’s positive COVID-19 test result commanded markets’ attention.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 17, 2019
Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury\'s turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 30, 2020
The recent surge in COVID-19 cases indicates that elected officials re-opened the economy too soon, that too many Americans are flaunting social distancing guidelines, and that the virus is likely to be around longer than we’d hoped.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2022
While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 21, 2020
Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 25, 2020
The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 17, 2021
Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 26, 2020
Employment fell in all 50 states and 43 states saw their unemployment rate rise to a record in April. The damage is already hard to fathom-a 28% unemployment rate in Nevada and still another month of job losses ahead.