This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Feb 01, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020

Global Review - Central Banks on Hold; Mexico’s Economy Struggling

  • This week, both the Bank of England and Chilean Central Bank opted to keep policy rates unchanged. Political developments have weighed on both economies, with Brexit complications creating mixed sentiment towards the UK, while social unrest is hurting economic activity in Chile. As of now, we expect both central banks to stay on hold, but acknowledge the dovish language from each set of policymakers.
  • Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019. Growth prospects for 2020 remain dim as political uncertainty weighs on the country’s outlook.



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Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 July 2020

The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 March 2020

Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted.

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The FOMC hiked the federal funds rate by 25 bps on Wednesday amid continued strength in the labor market and elevated inflation.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 May 2023

In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022

February\'s employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed\'s shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy.

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An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.

Rising COVID-19 Cases Put A Damper On Re-openings

The rising number of COVID-19 infections gained momentum this week, with most of the rise occurring in the South and West. The rise in infections is larger than can be explained by increased testing alone and is slowing re-openings.

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The resiliency of the U.S. consumer was also on display, as total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.3% in October, boosted, in part, by a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles & parts and a 4.1% rise at gasoline stations.

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The real estate sector has been significantly affected by rising interest rates, with total housing starts falling 8.1% in September. Peering ahead, the forward-looking Leading Economic Index points to a recession in the coming year.


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