This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Feb 01, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020

Global Review - Central Banks on Hold; Mexico’s Economy Struggling

  • This week, both the Bank of England and Chilean Central Bank opted to keep policy rates unchanged. Political developments have weighed on both economies, with Brexit complications creating mixed sentiment towards the UK, while social unrest is hurting economic activity in Chile. As of now, we expect both central banks to stay on hold, but acknowledge the dovish language from each set of policymakers.
  • Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019. Growth prospects for 2020 remain dim as political uncertainty weighs on the country’s outlook.



June 2020 Economy At A Glance

The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.

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Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.

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U.S. data released this week indicates the economic expansion remains alive even as inflation continues to slow. The year-ago rates of headline and core PCE inflation were the lowest since March 2021 and April 2021, respectively.

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Highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report surprised to the upside. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in September, and core CPI increased 0.6%.

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The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.

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Unlike the local temperatures, data released this week showed U.S. economic growth modestly declined in Q2.

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The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.

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Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.

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