This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Feb 08, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020

U.S. - A Solid Week To Be Sure, But Keep an Eye on the Details

  • U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
  • For the first time in six months, the ISM was not in contraction territory in January. A first step toward de-escalation in the trade war helped, but coronavirus worries are not yet showing up in these numbers.
  • The economy is still growing, but we’re not out of the woods yet with the trade war, and the coronavirus is still a developing threat that we are only beginning to understand.

 

Global - Growth Slowdown & Monetary Easing Nearing an End?

  • There are signs the global growth slowdown and global easing cycle may be nearing an end, even as the coronavirus offers new downside economic risks. After U.S. and China’s GDP growth were broadly steady in Q4, Australia’s central bank governor this week suggested the growth slowdown is coming to an end.
  • Australia’s central bank held rates steady, but its language was more hawkish in tone, while monetary policy in the U.S. and across Europe also appears to be on hold. Brazil’s central bank cut rates 25 bps but signaled an end to its easing cycle. Mexico is a notable exception that proves the rule, and is expected to cut interest rates 25 bps next week.



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The FOMC hiked the federal funds rate by 25 bps on Wednesday amid continued strength in the labor market and elevated inflation.

May 2020 Economy at a Glance

The U.S. is in a severe recession caused by the sudden shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the lock down began, the nation has lost 21.4 million jobs.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 May 2023

In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 August 2023

During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 April 2023

In March retail sales fell 1.0%, manufacturing production slipped 0.5% and the consumer price index rose a modest 0.1%.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 June 2020

Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 September 2022

The ISM services index came in stronger than expected, and the underlying details pointed to service sector resilience with business activity and new orders notching their highest reading this year.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 December 2022

Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.

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Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 March 2023

This week brought glimpses of market stabilization after weeks of turmoil. Although consumers seem unfazed by the uproar, tighter credit conditions coming down the pipeline will likely weigh on growth.


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