This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Feb 08, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020

U.S. - A Solid Week To Be Sure, But Keep an Eye on the Details

  • U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
  • For the first time in six months, the ISM was not in contraction territory in January. A first step toward de-escalation in the trade war helped, but coronavirus worries are not yet showing up in these numbers.
  • The economy is still growing, but we’re not out of the woods yet with the trade war, and the coronavirus is still a developing threat that we are only beginning to understand.

 

Global - Growth Slowdown & Monetary Easing Nearing an End?

  • There are signs the global growth slowdown and global easing cycle may be nearing an end, even as the coronavirus offers new downside economic risks. After U.S. and China’s GDP growth were broadly steady in Q4, Australia’s central bank governor this week suggested the growth slowdown is coming to an end.
  • Australia’s central bank held rates steady, but its language was more hawkish in tone, while monetary policy in the U.S. and across Europe also appears to be on hold. Brazil’s central bank cut rates 25 bps but signaled an end to its easing cycle. Mexico is a notable exception that proves the rule, and is expected to cut interest rates 25 bps next week.



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