This week's indicator performance presented mixed evidence of strength of the U.S. economy and the impact tightening monetary policy is having on key sectors.
Signaling slower growth rather than outright recession, industrial production regained its footing in September after declining in three of the prior four months. Total production rose 0.4% last month, as a matching gain in manufacturing and a 0.6% rise in mining more than offset a 0.3% slide in utilities. On broad-based strength, manufacturing output extended its growth streak to three months underpinned by solid business investment and demand for consumer goods. That said, the manufacturing sector is losing momentum. Manufacturing production increased at just a 1.9% annual rate in the third quarter after rising 3.6% in the second quarter.
Regional manufacturing surveys released this week support this loss of momentum. The Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys continued to signal contraction in early October as both headline indices remained in negative territory. Encouragingly, the surveys have been signaling less strain from supplier deliveries, reflecting, in part, softer demand, yet consistent with less upward pressure on prices. Expectations are high for manufacturing activity to start contracting in coming months as rising interest rates, consumers' spending changes from goods to services, and downturns in Europe and China collectively take a toll. Business surveys are picking up on this pessimism, as evidenced by the six-month ahead Empire State business conditions index falling to its second weakest reading since 2009 and the Philly Fed's future general activity index posting its fifth consecutive negative reading.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2019
Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 22, 2020
Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 July 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 30, 2021
In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.
2021 Annual Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 16, 2020
The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 13, 2021
Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 June 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 13, 2020
Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 20, 2022
Financial markets reacted in a zig-zag pattern to this week\'s economic data ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Price pressure is still not showing the sustained slowdown the Fed needs before it takes its foot off the throttle of tighter policy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 16, 2019
Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 09, 2019
Optimism soared this week on hopes of a forthcoming trade deal, as equity markets hit all-time highs and the yield curve steepened.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 12, 2020
Weekly first time unemployment claims highlighted an extraordinarily slow week for economic news. Jobless claims fell slightly but continuing claims fell by one million.
