July data indicates that we celebrated a decline in gas prices by going shopping, boosting retail sales figures. I’m not sure I get the connection…maybe we bought more souvenir trinkets while on vacation or felt better doing a little early “back-to-school” shopping? In any case, the data indicates we’re probably not quiet yet in a recession, so don’t look for the Fed to back off on rate increases. The Wells Fargo Economics Group is looking for 75bp next month, 50bp in November and another 25bp in December. Merry Christmas borrowers.
That said, with new orders in the manufacturing sector slowing sharply and housing activity continuing to tumble, data this week did little to change the view of the Wells Fargo Economics Group that a downturn in the coming quarters will be hard to avoid.
There is a chance you may see something strange falling from the sky this weekend into next week. In case you’ve forgotten, it’s called “rain”. Don’t panic…it’s a good thing. Your yard needs it.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2020
Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 27, 2020
Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 19, 2021
The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2023
Retail and Industrial activity were stronger than the headline data suggest, there are also some signs of weakening.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 28, 2019
The U.S. economy continues to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in Q3/19.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 16, 2020
The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 17, 2019
Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury\'s turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 11, 2022
Relief in October inflation gives the FOMC the ability to slow the pace of rate hikes ahead. But make no mistake, the Fed\'s job of taming inflation remains far from over.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2021
In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.