In what was a widely anticipated decision, the FOMC elected to lift the target range for the federal funds rate 75 bps at the conclusion of its November policy meeting this week to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. We analyze the meeting in more detail in this week's Interest Rate Watch section. In short, we think the FOMC is prepared to slow the pace of tightening at future meetings, though it is not done tightening yet. The risk of not tightening enough and inflation becoming entrenched outweighs the risk of over-tightening. We still anticipate the FOMC will deliver a 50 bps rate hike in December, though the size of the hike depends largely on the incoming data. Specifically, the November employment report and two CPI reports released before the next policy meeting on December 14.
The October employment report closed out the week and showed employers continued to add workers at a rapid clip. Employers added 261K net new jobs in October, beating the consensus expectation for a 195K gain (chart). This also came on top of some upward revisions to past data, but the fever still looks to be breaking on hiring with the three-month average pace of hiring falling to the slowest pace since the start of 2021. Job gains were fairly broad-based across sectors, and the report is still consistent with a tight labor market, which we think reinforces the idea the FOMC will keep tightening policy.
We look for job growth to moderate further over the coming months. Job openings pressed higher in September, though month-to-month movements tend to be volatile. Most measures, including the job opening rate, hiring plans and the PMI employment sub-components, indicate demand for labor is topping out. But with hiring still solid to date, the FOMC continues to largely have cover to focus primarily on inflation. We'll get the consumer price data for October next Thursday and expect prices rose 0.6% over the month. Please see our Domestic Outlook section for more detail on our expectations for next week's release.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 November 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2023
Retail and Industrial activity were stronger than the headline data suggest, there are also some signs of weakening.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 July 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 30, 2021
In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2019
A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 November 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 08, 2023
Although payroll growth is easing, the labor market remains relatively tight. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in October, slightly higher than the cycle low of 3.4% first hit in January 2023, but still low compared to historical averages.
Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 October 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 18, 2022
Highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report surprised to the upside. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in September, and core CPI increased 0.6%.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 13, 2023
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 08, 2021
Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 27, 2022
July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.
