This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 July 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 11, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 July 2020

U.S. - While Risk Remains, The Worst Appears to Be Behind Us

  • The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.
  • Real GDP declined in line with expectations, plunging at a record 32.9% annual rate.
  • Jobless claims rose for a second consecutive week, and continuing claims also increased.
  • Consumer confidence faltered as the second wave of COVID-19 infections triggered a pullback in economic engagement.

 

Global - Q2 GDP Data Shows Impact of COVID-19

  • As expected, Mexico’s economy contracted significantly in the second quarter. The effects of COVID-19 and collapse in oil prices weighed heavily on the economy in Q2, while a lack of fiscal policy support from the current administration adds challenges to Mexico’s growth outlook going forward.
  • GDP data were released across Europe as well, with the German economy recording a third straight quarterly contraction. Eurozone GDP performed roughly in line with expectations, recording a large decline in Q2. Despite the large contraction, we are optimistic on the Eurozone economy’s prospects for the second half of the year.



This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020

U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 May 2023

In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 May 2020

April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.

November 2020 Economy At A Glance

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020

Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 April 2022

What do pollen and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have in common? Answer; both are hitting new highs. This week’s U.S. economic data was led by the largest month monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since September 2005.

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Wednesday\'s release of the FOMC minutes stirred things up as comments showed committee members agreeing that elevated inflation and the tight labor market at present warrant balance sheet reduction to begin soon.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 December 2023

core CPI remained elevated in November at a 4.0% annual rate, a string of slower monthly prints suggests that disinflation has more room to run.

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We got our first look at Q1 GDP, which downshifted to a 1.6% annualized pace and was accompanied by a hot core PCE deflator reading.

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On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.


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