This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 April 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 08, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 April 2021

U.S. Review - Activity Marches Higher 

  • Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March. Firms' need for labor has increased to meet demand and employers added a whopping 916K jobs last month as the recovery gained momentum (see Chart). Prior job gains were revised higher as well, but the March figure still denotes a significant pickup from the first two months of the year.
  • For the second consecutive month, the hard-hit leisure & hospitality industry posted a solid gain (+280K), as in-person activity continues to recover. Construction payrolls also jumped 110K last month after severe winter weather weighed on the industry in February. Overall, hiring was broad based with nearly every major industry reporting gains. The few exceptions were the autos & parts and information industries, which reported very modest declines in net hiring of -1K and -2K, respectively. The unemployment rate slid 0.2 percentage points to 6.0% in March.

U.S. Outlook - ISM Services • Monday

The ISM Services index was not immune to the slowdown seen across the economy in February. The index slipped 3.4 points to its slowest pace of expansion since May 2020. The new orders index fell even further, down 9.9 points to 51.9, though some of this decline may reect the fact that long-depleted inventories have at last been restocked.




Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.

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