U.S. Review - Activity Marches Higher
- Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March. Firms' need for labor has increased to meet demand and employers added a whopping 916K jobs last month as the recovery gained momentum (see Chart). Prior job gains were revised higher as well, but the March figure still denotes a significant pickup from the first two months of the year.
- For the second consecutive month, the hard-hit leisure & hospitality industry posted a solid gain (+280K), as in-person activity continues to recover. Construction payrolls also jumped 110K last month after severe winter weather weighed on the industry in February. Overall, hiring was broad based with nearly every major industry reporting gains. The few exceptions were the autos & parts and information industries, which reported very modest declines in net hiring of -1K and -2K, respectively. The unemployment rate slid 0.2 percentage points to 6.0% in March.
U.S. Outlook - ISM Services • Monday
The ISM Services index was not immune to the slowdown seen across the economy in February. The index slipped 3.4 points to its slowest pace of expansion since May 2020. The new orders index fell even further, down 9.9 points to 51.9, though some of this decline may reî€‚ect the fact that long-depleted inventories have at last been restocked.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 19, 2021
Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 25, 2020
Initial jobless claims rose to just over 1.4 million for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims fell to about 16.2 million. Initial claims edging higher suggests that the resurgence of COVID-19 may be taking a toll on the labor market recovery.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 21, 2019
President Trump became the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the House, but removal by the Senate is highly unlikely. The House also passed the USMCA, which should be signed into law in early 2020.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 18, 2020
Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 21, 2019
The Federal Reserve reduced the fed funds rate 25 bps this week, continuing to cite economic weakness overseas and muted inflation pressures.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 19, 2021
The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2020
The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2020
Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2020
The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.