U.S. - Q3 PCE Rebound in the Cards, Outlook More Uncertain
- After a revised look at GDP this week suggested the second quarter may not have been quite as bad as first estimated, attention shifts to the current quarter. Fresh data this week shed light on the outlook for consumer spending.
- The bounce in Q3 consumption is looking better-than expected, though fading confidence and uncertainty about the virus and fiscal policy suggest the strength could quickly fade.
- FOMC Chair Jerome Powell announced an update to the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework in his remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. For a detailed analysis of how this affects our outlook, please see Interest Rate Watch on Page 6.
Global - Q2 GDP Data Plunged Across Most Economies
- Q2 GDP growth data released this week continued to show severe declines in most developed and emerging markets. Among the G10, Norway’s economy posted a record slump in the second quarter, plunging 6.3% quarter-over-quarter, while the Canadian economy also suffered a record decline, falling an annualized 38.7%. Meanwhile, Mexico’s economy also fell sharply as the COVID-19 pandemic weighed on key industries.
- The Bank of Korea held its 7-day repo rate unchanged at a record low of 0.50% at its meeting this week. The central bank now looks for the economy to contract 1.3% in 2020, significantly worse than its May forecast.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 21, 2020
Mobility is continuing to trickle lower in several major developed market economies. The U.K., France, Italy and Canada have all seen some further modest declines in retail/recreation visits.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 17, 2021
Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 August 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 09, 2023
Employment growth was broad-based, though reliant on a 87K gain in health care & social assistance. Modest gains from construction, financial activities and hospitality also contributed to private sector job growth.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 29, 2020
In what was a jam-packed week of economic data, the jobs report, prospects of additional fiscal stimulus and the president’s positive COVID-19 test result commanded markets’ attention.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2020
There were more signs of global recovery this week and PMI surveys improved further across the world.
2021 Annual Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 16, 2020
The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 May 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 23, 2023
Economic data continue to suggest the U.S. economy is only gradually losing momentum. Consumers continue to spend, and industrial and housing activity are seeing some stabilization.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 August 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 24, 2021
The Wells Fargo Economics team notes in the Commentary that new COVID cases in New Zealand disrupted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand\'s plan to tighten monetary policy this week.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 04, 2020
Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 February 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 27, 2024
Stronger-than-expected inflation, underpinned by the mildly hawkish minutes from the January FOMC meeting, drove a move higher in mortgage rates.
