U.S. - After Strong Initial Rebound, Momentum is Slowing
- The economic recovery continued into July, though the pace is slowing. The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.
- Consumer prices picked up in July, but weak demand will likely keep a lid on inflation in coming months.
- While retail sales are back above their pre-virus peak, consumer caution was evident in the July data.
- Initial claims for unemployment came in below 1 million last week for the first time in 20 weeks. This is a marked improvement, but unemployment remains strikingly high.
Global - Global Recovery Persists, Pace Moderates
- After a challenging start to 2020 economies around the world are turning the corner, albeit it at varying speeds.
- Euro zone June industrial output showed a large monthly increase, similar to a large gain in retail sales, but Q2 employment fell sharply. In China, July industrial output growth was steady while the fall in retail sales lessened.
- Some economic regions are lagging. U.K. Q2 GDP fell more than 20% quarter-over-quarter, although activity started to improve by the end of Q2. Similarly, the rebound in activity in Mexico and Brazil remains relatively gradual so far.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 13, 2021
Data from the opening weekend of College Football indicates that we will have to endure another season of Nick Saban deification.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 27, 2020
Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2019
A series of U.K. general election polls released this week continue to show Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party with a significant lead over the opposition Labor Party.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 13, 2020
The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 28, 2020
The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2020
Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 21, 2020
This week marked the first U.S. COVID vaccinations and the imminent rollout of a second vaccine.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2021
In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 15, 2022
Various price metrics released this week showed some continued signs of inflation cooling, but gradually rather than rapidly.