This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 15, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2020

U.S.  - After Strong Initial Rebound, Momentum is Slowing

  • The economic recovery continued into July, though the pace is slowing. The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.
  • Consumer prices picked up in July, but weak demand will likely keep a lid on inflation in coming months.
  • While retail sales are back above their pre-virus peak, consumer caution was evident in the July data.
  • Initial claims for unemployment came in below 1 million last week for the first time in 20 weeks. This is a marked improvement, but unemployment remains strikingly high. 

Global - Global Recovery Persists, Pace Moderates

  • After a challenging start to 2020 economies around the world are turning the corner, albeit it at varying speeds.
  • Euro zone June industrial output showed a large monthly increase, similar to a large gain in retail sales, but Q2 employment fell sharply. In China, July industrial output growth was steady while the fall in retail sales lessened.
  • Some economic regions are lagging. U.K. Q2 GDP fell more than 20% quarter-over-quarter, although activity started to improve by the end of Q2. Similarly, the rebound in activity in Mexico and Brazil remains relatively gradual so far.



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Unlike the local temperatures, data released this week showed U.S. economic growth modestly declined in Q2.

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

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The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.

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Financial markets were looking for validation that January\'s unexpected strength was not a fluke and that the downward slide in economic momentum experienced late last year had stabilized.

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Just as I know the folks in Florida are resilient and will recover in time, incoming data indicate a slowing yet resilient economy.

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An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.

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