This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Aug 15, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2020

U.S.  - After Strong Initial Rebound, Momentum is Slowing

  • The economic recovery continued into July, though the pace is slowing. The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.
  • Consumer prices picked up in July, but weak demand will likely keep a lid on inflation in coming months.
  • While retail sales are back above their pre-virus peak, consumer caution was evident in the July data.
  • Initial claims for unemployment came in below 1 million last week for the first time in 20 weeks. This is a marked improvement, but unemployment remains strikingly high. 

Global - Global Recovery Persists, Pace Moderates

  • After a challenging start to 2020 economies around the world are turning the corner, albeit it at varying speeds.
  • Euro zone June industrial output showed a large monthly increase, similar to a large gain in retail sales, but Q2 employment fell sharply. In China, July industrial output growth was steady while the fall in retail sales lessened.
  • Some economic regions are lagging. U.K. Q2 GDP fell more than 20% quarter-over-quarter, although activity started to improve by the end of Q2. Similarly, the rebound in activity in Mexico and Brazil remains relatively gradual so far.



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