This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 June 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jun 13, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 June 2020

U.S. - The Risk of a Second Wave

  • Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.
  • Re-opening the economy without a vaccine always entailed the risk of a second wave, which is the largest risk to a steady economic recovery.
  • While we are monitoring this serious risk, we continue to expect the gradual re-opening of the economy to result in a measured rebound in activity.


Global - COVID-19 Curve Flattening, but Not Everywhere

  • This week, activity and sentiment data flow were relatively thin, with COVID-19 still dominating headlines and influencing the path of financial assets. Cases at the global level continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, while Latin American countries have been unable to flatten the curve.
  • In that context, concerns over a second wave of infections weighed on financial markets and risk assets, in particular equities and foreign currencies. Emerging currencies sold off sharply toward the end of the week, while international equities relinquished some of the gains of the past month or so.

28 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report

In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.

November 2020 Economy At A Glance

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 November 2020

The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

August 2020 Economy At A Glance

Downstream involves the refining and processing of oil and natural gas into fuels, chemicals, and plastics. All three sectors are well-represented in Houston.

September 2020 Economy At A Glance

A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 August 2020

There were more signs of global recovery this week and PMI surveys improved further across the world.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2022

The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting from its current stance. The data seems to be going in multiple directions all at once.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 January 2023

During December, payrolls rose by 223K while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% and average hourly earnings eased 0.3%. Job openings (JOLTS) edged down to 10.46 million in November.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 January 2023

Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 4 October 2019

Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.


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