This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 June 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Jun 13, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 June 2020

U.S. - The Risk of a Second Wave

  • Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.
  • Re-opening the economy without a vaccine always entailed the risk of a second wave, which is the largest risk to a steady economic recovery.
  • While we are monitoring this serious risk, we continue to expect the gradual re-opening of the economy to result in a measured rebound in activity.

 

Global - COVID-19 Curve Flattening, but Not Everywhere

  • This week, activity and sentiment data flow were relatively thin, with COVID-19 still dominating headlines and influencing the path of financial assets. Cases at the global level continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, while Latin American countries have been unable to flatten the curve.
  • In that context, concerns over a second wave of infections weighed on financial markets and risk assets, in particular equities and foreign currencies. Emerging currencies sold off sharply toward the end of the week, while international equities relinquished some of the gains of the past month or so.



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Retail sales beat expectations and rose 0.3% in October, reflecting the ongoing strength of the consumer. Control group sales, a major input to GDP, also increased 0.3%.

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Highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report surprised to the upside. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in September, and core CPI increased 0.6%.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that nonfarm payrolls increased 528,000 for the month of July, easily topping estimates, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.5%.

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Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month\'s 227,000-job drop.

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Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.

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An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.

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Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March.

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