U.S. - The Risk of a Second Wave
- Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.
- Re-opening the economy without a vaccine always entailed the risk of a second wave, which is the largest risk to a steady economic recovery.
- While we are monitoring this serious risk, we continue to expect the gradual re-opening of the economy to result in a measured rebound in activity.
Global - COVID-19 Curve Flattening, but Not Everywhere
- This week, activity and sentiment data flow were relatively thin, with COVID-19 still dominating headlines and influencing the path of financial assets. Cases at the global level continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, while Latin American countries have been unable to flatten the curve.
- In that context, concerns over a second wave of infections weighed on financial markets and risk assets, in particular equities and foreign currencies. Emerging currencies sold off sharply toward the end of the week, while international equities relinquished some of the gains of the past month or so.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2023
Retail and Industrial activity were stronger than the headline data suggest, there are also some signs of weakening.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 31, 2022
Unlike the local temperatures, data released this week showed U.S. economic growth modestly declined in Q2.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 18, 2020
Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 27, 2020
Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 19, 2021
The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2022
higher interest rates and inflation appear to be weighing on manufacturing and construction, yet service sector activity remains fairly resilient.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 08, 2023
This week brought glimpses of market stabilization after weeks of turmoil. Although consumers seem unfazed by the uproar, tighter credit conditions coming down the pipeline will likely weigh on growth.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2021
Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 18, 2022
What do pollen and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have in common? Answer; both are hitting new highs. This week’s U.S. economic data was led by the largest month monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since September 2005.