The Federal Reserve doesn't expect a quick rebound.
The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.
The World Bank is less optimistic than the Fed.
The bank expects the global economy to shrink 5.2 percent this year, making it one of the most severe downturns in the past 150 years. Never before have so many countries entered a recession at the same time.
Many economists expect the recovery to begin in Q3.
In a recent survey of 60 prominent academic and business economists, The Wall Street Journal found 68.4 percent expect the recovery to begin Q3/20. Just over a fifth, 22.8%, said it had already begun in Q2/20.
The spot price for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, averaged $37.32 per barrel the first week of June, up from $15.71 the first week of May.
Baker Hughes reports that the North American rig count fell to 279 the week ending June 5, the lowest level on record. During the Fracking Bust of ’14 – ’17, the rig count bottomed out at 404.
HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT UPDATE
The nine-county Metro Houston area has lost 330,100 jobs since the economy shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) data.
Today's Losses in Perspective
The region lost 221,000 jobs during the ’80s energy bust, or one in every seven jobs. Houston’s economy is significantly larger now, so the 330,100 jobs lost in the COVID-19 recession represents a smaller share of employment, about one in ten jobs in the region.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The region’s unemployment rate, as low as 3.9 percent in February, rose to 14.2 percent in April. The rates are not seasonally adjusted. Again, TWC has likely understated local unemployment.
POPULATION TRENDS
Houston reached a milestone last year. The nine-county metro area topped 7.0 million residents, according to data released this spring by the U.S. Census Bureau. The announcement went largely unnoticed because the nation’s attention was focused on the COVID-19 pandemic.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 01, 2020
Mexico’s economy has slowed notably over the last year, with the economy contracting again in Q4, indicating a full-year contraction for 2019.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2021
While fears of an Evergrande default in China were rattling financial markets, for those of us in Southeast Texas who have survived the typically very hot months of July, August and September, this week brought the very welcome first early fall-like
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 August 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 17, 2019
Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury\'s turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 15, 2020
The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
May 2020 Economy at a Glance
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 19, 2020
The U.S. is in a severe recession caused by the sudden shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the lock down began, the nation has lost 21.4 million jobs.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 11, 2020
The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.
Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 14, 2020
Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 15, 2020
Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
