The Federal Reserve doesn't expect a quick rebound.
The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.
The World Bank is less optimistic than the Fed.
The bank expects the global economy to shrink 5.2 percent this year, making it one of the most severe downturns in the past 150 years. Never before have so many countries entered a recession at the same time.
Many economists expect the recovery to begin in Q3.
In a recent survey of 60 prominent academic and business economists, The Wall Street Journal found 68.4 percent expect the recovery to begin Q3/20. Just over a fifth, 22.8%, said it had already begun in Q2/20.
The spot price for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, averaged $37.32 per barrel the first week of June, up from $15.71 the first week of May.
Baker Hughes reports that the North American rig count fell to 279 the week ending June 5, the lowest level on record. During the Fracking Bust of ’14 – ’17, the rig count bottomed out at 404.
HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT UPDATE
The nine-county Metro Houston area has lost 330,100 jobs since the economy shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) data.
Today's Losses in Perspective
The region lost 221,000 jobs during the ’80s energy bust, or one in every seven jobs. Houston’s economy is significantly larger now, so the 330,100 jobs lost in the COVID-19 recession represents a smaller share of employment, about one in ten jobs in the region.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The region’s unemployment rate, as low as 3.9 percent in February, rose to 14.2 percent in April. The rates are not seasonally adjusted. Again, TWC has likely understated local unemployment.
POPULATION TRENDS
Houston reached a milestone last year. The nine-county metro area topped 7.0 million residents, according to data released this spring by the U.S. Census Bureau. The announcement went largely unnoticed because the nation’s attention was focused on the COVID-19 pandemic.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
it looks like higher mortgage rates are starting to have some effect on the housing market as April...
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 January 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 12, 2023
During December, payrolls rose by 223K while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% and average hourly earnings eased 0.3%. Job openings (JOLTS) edged down to 10.46 million in November.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 August 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 19, 2021
The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 04, 2020
Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 30, 2020
The beginning of this week saw some optimism that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived, but data through the rest of the week provided grim reminder of the economic damage from COVID-19.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2020
U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 29, 2020
Employers added jobs for the fourth consecutive month in August, bringing the total number of jobs recovered from the virus-related low to 10.5 million.
2021 Annual Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 16, 2020
The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 October 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 29, 2020
In what was a jam-packed week of economic data, the jobs report, prospects of additional fiscal stimulus and the president’s positive COVID-19 test result commanded markets’ attention.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 June 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 25, 2022
The biggest economic news was Fed Chair Powell presenting the Federal Reserve\'s semiannual Monetary Policy report to Congress this week.
