The Federal Reserve doesn't expect a quick rebound.
The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.
The World Bank is less optimistic than the Fed.
The bank expects the global economy to shrink 5.2 percent this year, making it one of the most severe downturns in the past 150 years. Never before have so many countries entered a recession at the same time.
Many economists expect the recovery to begin in Q3.
In a recent survey of 60 prominent academic and business economists, The Wall Street Journal found 68.4 percent expect the recovery to begin Q3/20. Just over a fifth, 22.8%, said it had already begun in Q2/20.
The spot price for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, averaged $37.32 per barrel the first week of June, up from $15.71 the first week of May.
Baker Hughes reports that the North American rig count fell to 279 the week ending June 5, the lowest level on record. During the Fracking Bust of ’14 – ’17, the rig count bottomed out at 404.
HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT UPDATE
The nine-county Metro Houston area has lost 330,100 jobs since the economy shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) data.
Today's Losses in Perspective
The region lost 221,000 jobs during the ’80s energy bust, or one in every seven jobs. Houston’s economy is significantly larger now, so the 330,100 jobs lost in the COVID-19 recession represents a smaller share of employment, about one in ten jobs in the region.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The region’s unemployment rate, as low as 3.9 percent in February, rose to 14.2 percent in April. The rates are not seasonally adjusted. Again, TWC has likely understated local unemployment.
POPULATION TRENDS
Houston reached a milestone last year. The nine-county metro area topped 7.0 million residents, according to data released this spring by the U.S. Census Bureau. The announcement went largely unnoticed because the nation’s attention was focused on the COVID-19 pandemic.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 May 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 17, 2023
In April, the CPI rose 0.4% on both a headline and core basis, keeping the core running at a 5.1% three-month annualized rate. However, details pointed to price growth easing ahead.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 January 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 25, 2020
Fears of an escalating coronavirus outbreak reached the United States this week, as a Washington state man became the first confirmed domestic case and the international total reached more than 800.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 4 October 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 05, 2019
Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 February 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 19, 2021
Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 August 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 15, 2023
During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 August 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 19, 2021
The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 10, 2021
e move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 April 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 11, 2022
Wednesday\'s release of the FOMC minutes stirred things up as comments showed committee members agreeing that elevated inflation and the tight labor market at present warrant balance sheet reduction to begin soon.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 August 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 26, 2020
After a revised look at GDP this week suggested the second quarter may not have been quite as bad as first estimated, attention shifts to the current quarter.
September 2020 Economy At A Glance
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 19, 2020
A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.
