U.S. - May Retail Sales Surge, but Other Data Disappoint
- Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.
- The factory data were not as encouraging. Industrial production growth was just 1.4% in May, below the 3.0% consensus. On a year-over-year basis, the decline in industrial output was more than double the decline in retail sales.
- The initial jobless claims data were the last major release of the week, and they too were disappointing. Even more disappointing were the continuing claims data, which showed almost no change in those receiving unemployment benefits from May 30 to June 6.
Global - Global Central Banks Back in Focus This Week
- It was a busy week for central banks across the globe, with some opting to ease monetary policy further.
- Within the G10, the Bank of England announced a £100B increase in its asset purchase target, but some elements of the accompanying statement were less dovish in tone. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at zero.
- Among the emerging economies, Brazil’s central bank delivered a 75 bps rate cut, and left the door open to additional cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia cut its Key rate a full percentage point, but Taiwan’s central bank kept rates on hold.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 21, 2023
Retail sales declined 0.4% during February, while industrial production was flat (0.0%). Housing starts and permits jumped 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 31, 2022
Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 05, 2022
The key factor that will drive interest rates is the Fed’s belated effort to rein-in inflation.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 20, 2023
The housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed\'s efforts to slow the economy, and this week\'s data showed the industry continues to reel.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 07, 2023
Looking at Q4 GDP, Australia\'s economy grew by less than expected, GDP was flat for the quarter in both Canada and Switzerland, and Sweden\'s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2020
The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 01, 2020
Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2022
While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 08, 2023
This week brought glimpses of market stabilization after weeks of turmoil. Although consumers seem unfazed by the uproar, tighter credit conditions coming down the pipeline will likely weigh on growth.
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2021
Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.