U.S. - May Retail Sales Surge, but Other Data Disappoint
- Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.
- The factory data were not as encouraging. Industrial production growth was just 1.4% in May, below the 3.0% consensus. On a year-over-year basis, the decline in industrial output was more than double the decline in retail sales.
- The initial jobless claims data were the last major release of the week, and they too were disappointing. Even more disappointing were the continuing claims data, which showed almost no change in those receiving unemployment benefits from May 30 to June 6.
Global - Global Central Banks Back in Focus This Week
- It was a busy week for central banks across the globe, with some opting to ease monetary policy further.
- Within the G10, the Bank of England announced a £100B increase in its asset purchase target, but some elements of the accompanying statement were less dovish in tone. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at zero.
- Among the emerging economies, Brazil’s central bank delivered a 75 bps rate cut, and left the door open to additional cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia cut its Key rate a full percentage point, but Taiwan’s central bank kept rates on hold.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 14, 2022
As with the Mets and Yankees when they ran into the Astros over the last couple days, consumers staying power is showing signs of running out as inflation persists and confidence moves sharply lower.
13 January 2021 Monthly Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 19, 2021
The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2022
Unlike Yordan Alvarez, no one is expecting the Fed to stand back and admire their handiwork after this weeks 50 basis point increase in the Fed Discount Rate. Similar to Yordan, their effort is more of a single and not a home run.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2023
Employers added jobs at the slowest pace since 2020 in March, job openings fell and an upward trend in initial jobless claims has emerged.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2021
This week\'s lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week\'s blowout retail sales report.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 04, 2020
It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 15, 2020
April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 31 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 11, 2020
The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.
The Regional Breakdown Of A Labor Market In Meltdown
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 26, 2020
Employment fell in all 50 states and 43 states saw their unemployment rate rise to a record in April. The damage is already hard to fathom-a 28% unemployment rate in Nevada and still another month of job losses ahead.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 10, 2020
As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.
