U.S. - May Retail Sales Surge, but Other Data Disappoint
- Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.
- The factory data were not as encouraging. Industrial production growth was just 1.4% in May, below the 3.0% consensus. On a year-over-year basis, the decline in industrial output was more than double the decline in retail sales.
- The initial jobless claims data were the last major release of the week, and they too were disappointing. Even more disappointing were the continuing claims data, which showed almost no change in those receiving unemployment benefits from May 30 to June 6.
Global - Global Central Banks Back in Focus This Week
- It was a busy week for central banks across the globe, with some opting to ease monetary policy further.
- Within the G10, the Bank of England announced a £100B increase in its asset purchase target, but some elements of the accompanying statement were less dovish in tone. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at zero.
- Among the emerging economies, Brazil’s central bank delivered a 75 bps rate cut, and left the door open to additional cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia cut its Key rate a full percentage point, but Taiwan’s central bank kept rates on hold.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 November 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 20, 2024
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.24% in October, the largest unrounded monthly uptick since April. This bump brought the 12-month rate to 2.6%, the first annual acceleration since inflation’s hot streak in Q1.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 November 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 11, 2022
Relief in October inflation gives the FOMC the ability to slow the pace of rate hikes ahead. But make no mistake, the Fed\'s job of taming inflation remains far from over.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 13, 2023
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 03, 2023
U.S. Economy expands but at a weak rate. Regional bank failures cause corporate investment spreads to widen again. House Republicans pass bills that affect the debt ceiling.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 07, 2023
Looking at Q4 GDP, Australia\'s economy grew by less than expected, GDP was flat for the quarter in both Canada and Switzerland, and Sweden\'s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 September 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 23, 2021
While we were picking up tree limbs from the yard, data released this week generally showed a stronger economy in August than many expected in the wake of surging COVID cases.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 August 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 06, 2024
The July employment report brought with it a crossing of the Sahm Rule threshold. That means we\'re either headed for recession, or about to break yet another recession rule this unique cycle. Either way, the Fed is getting ready to cut.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2023
Employers added jobs at the slowest pace since 2020 in March, job openings fell and an upward trend in initial jobless claims has emerged.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 April 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 18, 2024
The March consumer price data dominated the economic discussion this week and are the latest to support that the timing and degree of Fed easing will be later and smaller than many of us previously expected.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 14, 2022
As with the Mets and Yankees when they ran into the Astros over the last couple days, consumers staying power is showing signs of running out as inflation persists and confidence moves sharply lower.
