This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 November 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Nov 10, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 November 2020

U.S. - Parsing Economic Data while Awaiting Election Results

  • As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.
  • Total payrolls rose by 638K in October. Growth continues to slow, however. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%.
  • The FOMC made no major changes to monetary policy, although did acknowledge the downside risk of rising COVID cases throughout the country.
  • The ISM manufacturing index soared to 59.3 in October. By contrast, the ISM services index declined to 56.6.

 

Global - Global Focus Turns to Central Bank Announcements

  • Global central banks were back in the spotlight this week, with several central banks easing monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its Cash Rate and three-year yield target to 0.10%, and increased bond purchases by A$100B of five-to-ten year government bonds over the next six months.
  • The Bank of England eased monetary policy further, expanding its asset purchase program by a larger-than-expected £150B. Separately, U.K. Chancellor Sunak announced an extension of the government’s salary support program until the end of March 2021. Elsewhere, the Norges Bank also announced policy this week, leaving its key rate unchanged at zero.



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Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.

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Visiting from Texas, it felt more like fall, which like the Texas cold-snap last February just goes to show that it’s a case of what you’re used to.

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Despite indications of lost momentum elsewhere, residential construction activity is picking up steam.

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In the biggest financial news this week not connected to college football conference realignment, July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index slipped one point to 80.

June 2020 Economy At A Glance

The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.


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