Gross Domestic Product
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent, or $1.3 trillion in Q3, adjusted for inflation. The economy benefited from an increase in consumer spending, a restocking of inventories, exports, new investments in building, equipment and inventories, and new home construction.
Job Growth
The nation has created 11.4 million jobs since May, recouping over half March and April’s losses. But growth is already slowing. Employers added only 661,000 workers in September, less than half the 1.5 million added in August. The nation remains 10.7 million shy of its February level. The recent spike in COVID cases, the expiration of the federal stimulus packages, and uncertainly over the outcome of the presidential election will further slow job gains.
Unemployment
U.S. unemployment peaked at 14.7 percent in April and has steadily improved, decreasing to 7.9 percent in September. But the headline number belies what’s actually happening in the labor market. Since February, 4.4 million Americans have dropped out of the labor force and are no longer counted as unemployed. Factor them back in and the unemployment rate jumps to 10.3 percent.
Home Sales
Existing-home sales grew for the fourth consecutive month in September, hitting a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million, up 9.4 percent from August and 21 percent from September a year ago. Seven out of every ten homes sold were on the market for less than a month.
Retail
Retail continues to recover. The U.S. Census Bureau reports September sales were up 1.9 percent from August and 5.4 percent from September of last year. Those numbers reflect a shift in consumer buying patterns. Unable to travel, attend concerts, cheer at sporting events, or dine out, consumers have opted to purchase goods rather than services. Through September of this year, consumers spent 20 percent less on dining than they did over the same period in ’19. The data also reflect a significant increase in online purchasing, up 20 percent so far this year.
Perryman's Perspective
Houston’s real gross product (RGP) will shrink 4.8 percent this year (December to December) before rebounding 4.2 percent next year. That’s the latest projections by The Perryman Group, the Waco-based think tank that’s been analyzing and forecasting for U.S., Texas, and Texas metros since the early 1980s.
Houston Employment Update
Metro Houston added 24,400 jobs in September, bringing the total recovered since April to 142,600. Houston re-mains 207,600 jobs short of its pre-pandemic level. The gains put Houston just shy of 3.0 million jobs. The region had topped 3.2 million jobs back in February. In a normal year, the region adds 25,000 to 50,000 in Q4, which would put a considerable dent in the COVID job losses. But this hasn’t been a normal year and job gains through December are likely to be subdued.
Innovation Update
At first glance, tech funding in Houston appears remarkably unscathed by the pandemic. Houston-area startups have raised nearly as much venture capital so far this year as they did last year. VC Investments in the region topped $556 million through Q3/20, down only 4 percent from the same period in ’19, according to a Partnership analysis of PitchBook data.
28 January 2021 Economic Outlook Report
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 08, 2021
In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 13, 2023
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, a monthly change that was a bit softer than the 0.6% increase registered in August. The core CPI rose 0.3% during the month, a pace unchanged from the month prior.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 March 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 28, 2020
The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 27, 2023
Treasury yields surged this week due to strong economic activity, impacting expectations for longer-term rates. New home sales led to a rise in single-family permits, but spiking mortgage rates are testing builder affordability strategies.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 August 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 16, 2021
Back to the economy, issues with supply constraints remains a broken-record reference, but data this week highlighted the economy\'s resilience in spite of those continuing problems.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 January 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2021
Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 24, 2020
The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 October 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 02, 2023
The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-expected pace in Q3, with real GDP increasing at a robust 4.9% annualized rate.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 December 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Dec 14, 2020
Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 May 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 11, 2023
In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.
