This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 27, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020

U.S. - Throw Out the Textbook

  • Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut.
  • In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
  • Congress has passed its fourth major relief package, including an additional $320 billion for the PPP.
  • The Fed continues to do what it can, with its balance sheet rising an astounding $2.4 trillion in just two months.


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Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.

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The first economic data released this week in the United States reinforced the theme that labor supply and demand are struggling to come into balance.

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While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.

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More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.

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Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.

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Data this week continued to suggest the U.S. economy hit rock bottom in April. Still, it is a long road to recovery and the pickup in economic activity will be gradual.

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After a revised look at GDP this week suggested the second quarter may not have been quite as bad as first estimated, attention shifts to the current quarter.

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Mild weather helped housing starts surge 16.9% in December to a 1.61 million-unit pace, the highest in 13 years. Manufacturing surveys from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed both rose more than expected in December.

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Total payrolls rose by 263K in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7% and average hourly earning rising by 0.6%.

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higher interest rates and inflation appear to be weighing on manufacturing and construction, yet service sector activity remains fairly resilient.


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