This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Apr 27, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020

U.S. - Throw Out the Textbook

  • Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut.
  • In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
  • Congress has passed its fourth major relief package, including an additional $320 billion for the PPP.
  • The Fed continues to do what it can, with its balance sheet rising an astounding $2.4 trillion in just two months.


June 2020 Economy At A Glance

The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.

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Nonfarm payrolls expanded 303K in March, surpassing all estimates submitted to Bloomberg. The continued strength in hiring suggests less urgency for policymakers at the Federal Reserve to lower the target range of the fed funds rate.

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Retail sales rose just 0.1% over the month, falling short of consensus and suggesting that consumers may finally be feeling some spending fatigue.

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The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.

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Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 March 2020

The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that nonfarm payrolls increased 528,000 for the month of July, easily topping estimates, lowering the unemployment rate to 3.5%.

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Retail sales came in stronger than expected in September, industrial production was weaker than expected and residential construction softened.

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An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.

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Inflation continues its gradual descent, and business optimism has trended higher amid cooler input price growth and steady consumer spending.


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