This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 February 2022

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Feb 27, 2022

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 February 2022

What a crazy week.  It’s hard to worry about something as relatively unimportant as economic trends when one thinks about what folks in Ukraine are enduring, but economies are nonetheless impacted.  From an economic standpoint, the United States has a fairly minimal amount of exposure to the initial effects of the conflict. Obviously, there are many other implications of the conflict, and as the responses of the combatants and other parties evolve in the coming weeks and months, the implications for the economy will come into better focus.




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Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.

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e move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations.

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Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-the-necks. In spite of all the difficulties, the Economic whizzes in the WF Economics team have upgraded their forecast for full-year 2021 U.S.

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The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.

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Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus.

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Survey evidence flashed signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector and indicated weakness spreading to the services side of the economy, while employers added a less-than-expected 136K jobs in September.

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This week marked the first U.S. COVID vaccinations and the imminent rollout of a second vaccine.

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It was a mildly busy week for foreign economic data and events, while global COVID-19 cases continued to rise.

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Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.

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The consumer has been a bright spot in the recovery so far, but with jobless benefits in flux and no clear path for the long-awaited stimulus bill, the support here could fade.


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