This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 September 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Sep 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 September 2021

One more month of wicked heat here in Houston, then fall arrives.  We move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations. For financial markets, who were hanging on every indication of the labor market as a clue to eventual Fed tapering, this report did not shout "substantial further progress." Other economic indicators this week were emblematic of the crosscurrents confronting the U.S. economy as it transitions from the vaccine- & stimulus-fueled surge in activity earlier in the year to a yet-to-be-determined new normal.




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Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.

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Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted.

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it looks like higher mortgage rates are starting to have some effect on the housing market as April...

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The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.

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The real estate sector has been significantly affected by rising interest rates, with total housing starts falling 8.1% in September. Peering ahead, the forward-looking Leading Economic Index points to a recession in the coming year.

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What a crazy week. It’s hard to worry about something as relatively unimportant as economic trends when one thinks about what folks in Ukraine are enduring, but economies are nonetheless impacted.

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