This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 September 2021

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Sep 10, 2021

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 September 2021

One more month of wicked heat here in Houston, then fall arrives.  We move into the Labor Day weekend celebrating the 235K jobs added in August, while simultaneously lamenting that it was about half a million jobs short of expectations. For financial markets, who were hanging on every indication of the labor market as a clue to eventual Fed tapering, this report did not shout "substantial further progress." Other economic indicators this week were emblematic of the crosscurrents confronting the U.S. economy as it transitions from the vaccine- & stimulus-fueled surge in activity earlier in the year to a yet-to-be-determined new normal.




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Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.

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The Wells Fargo Economics team notes in the Commentary that new COVID cases in New Zealand disrupted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand\'s plan to tighten monetary policy this week.

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Headline GDP continues to send mixed signals on the direction of the U.S. economy. During Q3, real GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, ending the recent string of quarterly declines in growth registered in the first half of 2022.

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The resurgence in COVID-19 in much of the Sun Belt appears to have topped out, although cases are rising faster in some smaller mid-Atlantic states and in parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.

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This week brought glimpses of market stabilization after weeks of turmoil. Although consumers seem unfazed by the uproar, tighter credit conditions coming down the pipeline will likely weigh on growth.

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The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.

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What do pollen and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have in common? Answer; both are hitting new highs. This week’s U.S. economic data was led by the largest month monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since September 2005.

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As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.

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The week began amid rising tensions carrying over from the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani last Friday.

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Real GDP jumped a record 33.1% during Q3, beating expectations. A 40.7% surge in consumer spending drove the gain.


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